Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report – 2021-2026

USD1,450.42

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Indonesian telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G, digital infrastructure and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Digital Infrastructure (Fibre, Telecom Towers, Data Centres, Submarine Cables)
  • Telecom Tower Market Analysis and Forecast
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

About this report:
3rd Edition
Pages: 87
Author: Landry Fevre
Publication Date: August 2021
License: Single User PDF

Description

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THIS INDONESIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

The Indonesia Telecommunications Industry Report, 2021-2026 includes an overview of the Indonesian market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance
Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. Idem Est Research expects the Indonesian telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Idem Est Research forecasts 5G mobile subscribers will represent 37.5% of all subscriptions by 2026 in Indonesia. 4G will represent about 56.6% of all connections while 2G and 3G will represent about 5% if not shut down earlier. Indosat and Telkomsel launched 5G in 2021 and take-up will ramp to an estimated 12.5m by the end of 2021, while Idem Est Research forecasts just under 154m 5G subscribers by 2026 for the Indonesian market.

The Indonesian telecommunications market is a thriving mobile market with five large network operators, an incumbent fixed-line provider with near-monopoly and the overall market underpinned by strong economic fundamentals.

Indonesia is among the fastest developing telecommunications market in the world, driven by growth in both mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions. Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow strongly in the 2020-25 period after a slow down in 2018. Fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2010, sliding down every year since then.

Expanded coverage, greater affordability, service improvements, increased data usage and smartphone penetration are the main drivers of growth in the telecoms sector. The country continues to expand its fibre-optic network and 4G coverage, backed by strong investment in capital expenditure. Investment in the telecoms sector grew at a fast pace and momentum maintained expected in the 2020-25 period.

Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow strongly through to 2025 after a decline in 2018 due to the SIM registration regulation with overall market growth resuming from 2020 onwards.

Capex Investments

The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2019. The capital expenditure (Capex) from telecommunications operators is growing strongly as mobile operators build out their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand and increased smartphones take-up. Idem Est Research expects Capex spend to grow between 2020 and 2025.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

The mobile subscriber penetration rate fell in 2018, after the government implemented new requirements for SIM registration in May 2018. Idem Est Research forecasts the growth to resume and accelerate again during the 2020-25 forecast period.

Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.

Idem Est Research benchmarked mobile data pricing across 8 countries in the Asia Pacific region and found that Indonesia is lagging behind in terms of data download but we expect the country to catch up as 4G coverage is accelerating and smartphone penetration is increasing especially in regional areas.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Indonesian pricing is already fairly low when benchmarked against neighbouring countries.

Broadband Subscribers – FTTH Push

Idem Est Research estimates the broadband subscribers growth will be sustained by household growth and a reduction of the number of underserved premises previously not able to connect now served by the Internet but now served by FTTH services.

The Indonesian fixed broadband market is growing at double rate year on year and will continue over the 2021-2026 period with a growing appetite for high-speed data among the expanding middle-income class in Indonesia driving fixed broadband take-up and household penetration

ThematicsTelecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / e-Commerce

The long-envisioned Palapa Ring national broadband network is now completed and operational since the end of 2019. The US$1.3bn project incorporates eight different networks. 

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

Most telecommunications operators are in heavy investments phase both in fixed and mobile segments, spending heavily upgrading their 4G network infrastructure. Idem Est Research expects a wave of consolidation in Indonesia not before 2022-2023, as margins get squeezed further and a new Capex cycle kicking with 5G.

The increase in smartphone penetration made possible by the availability of low-cost devices has triggered growth in e-commerce, tapping into the potential of Indonesia’s emerging middle class with relatively high disposable income. GoJek, Tokopedia, Grab and Bukalapak are leading the pack with e-commerce, ride-sharing and mobile payments.

Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report – TABLE OF CONTENTS

1       Key Statistics
1.1        Indonesia’s Population
1.2        Indonesia’s Economy
1.3        Indonesia’s GDP

2       COVID-19 Impact

3       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014–2026
3.1        Market Overview
3.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2020
3.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2019-2026
3.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2026
3.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2020
3.4.2      Capex to Revenue Benchmark
3.4.3      Capex to GDP Benchmark
3.4.4      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2019-2026

4       Telecommunications Operators Profile
4.1        Telkom Indonesia Profile
4.1.1      Telkom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.1.2      Telkomsel
4.2        Indosat Ooredoo Profile
4.2.1      Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.3        XL Axiata
4.3.1      XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.4        Tri Indonesia
4.4.1      Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.5        Smartfren Profile
4.5.1      Smartfren Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Mix
4.6        Link Net
4.6.1      Link Net Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Mix
4.7        Other Players Profile
4.7.1      MNC Vision
4.7.2      BizNet

5       Mobile market
5.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
5.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2020
5.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2021
5.1.3      Indonesia Smartphone Share, 2021
5.1.4      Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026
5.1.5      Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2019-2026
5.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2026
5.2.1      Historical Mobile Revenue, 2014-2020
5.2.2      Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2014-2020
5.2.3      Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2019–2026
5.2.4      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2020
5.3        Spectrum Holdings
5.3.1      5G Development and Launches
5.3.2      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
5.3.3      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
5.4        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
5.5        Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.2      OpenSignal
5.6        Internet of Things (IoT)

6       Broadband Market
6.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2020
6.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026

7       Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1        Fixed Digital Infrastructure
7.1.1      Palapa Ring Completed
7.1.2      FTTH – 30m premises to go
7.1.3      Submarine Cables

8       Indonesia Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
8.1        Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2020
8.1.1      Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Overview
8.1.2      Indonesia Telecom Towers Background
8.2        Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
8.3        Indonesia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
8.3.1      Indonesia Telecom Towers and Rooftops, Revenue, Penetration Forecast, 2020-2025
8.3.2      Regulatory Considerations
8.4        Mitratel Profile
8.4.1      Mitratel Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.5        Tower bersama Profile
8.5.1      Tower Bersama Revenue, EBITDA and Towers, 2014 – 2020
8.5.2      Tower Bersama Key Performance Indicators
8.6        Protelindo Profile
8.6.1      Protelindo Revenue, EBITDA and Towers, 2014 – 2020
8.6.2      Protelindo Key Performance Indicators
8.7        Centratama Menara Profile
8.7.1      Centratama Menara Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.8        IBS Towers Profile
8.8.1      IBS Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.9        STP Telecom Profile
8.9.1      STP Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.10      Bali Tower Telecom Profile
8.10.1     Bali Tower Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.11      Digital Colony Telecom Profile
8.12      Tower Density Benchmark
8.13      Telco Infrastructure Comparative

9       Thematics / Opportunities
9.1        Consolidation Opportunities
9.2        Diversification Opportunities
9.3        New Telco Operating Model
9.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
9.4        5G Developments
9.4.1      5G Overview
9.4.2      5G – Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
9.4.3      5G OpenRAN
9.4.4      Beyond 5G and Towards 6G

10     Telco Transaction Database

11     Methodology

12     Copyright Notice

Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Indonesia
Figure 2 –Revenue Profile Historical Mix (IDR bn), 2014 – 2020
Figure 3 – Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2020
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2020
Figure 5 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2020
Figure 6 – Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (IDR tn), 2019-2026
Figure 7 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2020
Figure 8 – Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2014-2020
Figure 9 – Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2026
Figure 10 – Telkom Indonesia Revenue Mix – 2014-2020
Figure 11 – Telkom Indonesia Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2020 (IDR bn)
Figure 12 – Telkomsel Revenue Mix – 2014-2020
Figure 13 – Telkomsel Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2020 (IDR bn)
Figure 14 – Indosat Revenue Mix – 2014-2020
Figure 15 – Indosat Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2020 (IDR bn)
Figure 16 – XL Axiata Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2014-2020
Figure 17 – Tri Indonesia Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2014-2020
Figure 18 – Smartfren Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2014-2020
Figure 19 – Link Net Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2014-2020
Figure 20 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2021
Figure 21 – Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2014-2021
Figure 22 – Mobile Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2015-2021
Figure 23 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026
Figure 24 – Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2019-2026
Figure 25 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2020
Figure 26 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast (IDR trillion), 2019-2026
Figure 27 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2020
Figure 28 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2020
Figure 29 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2020
Figure 30 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia Pacific (USD per GB per Month), 2017-2020
Figure 31 – Spectrum available for IoT in Indonesia
Figure 32 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2021
Figure 33 – Indonesia Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2015-2021
Figure 34 – Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026
Figure 35 – Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Share, 2020
Figure 36 – Indonesia Telecom Towers Forecast, 2020-2025
Figure 37 – Subscribers per Tower, 2020
Figure 38 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 39 – 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 40 – Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 41 – 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 42 – Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 43 – Telecom Infra Project – OpenRAN Vision

Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – Indonesia – Key Statistics
Table 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2014-2020
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019-2025
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2020
Table 5 – Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2018-2025
Table 6 – Historical Telkom Revenue & EBITDA, 2014-2020
Table 7 – Telkomsel Revenue & EBITDA, 2014-2020
Table 8 – Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2020
Table 9 – XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2020
Table 10 – Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2020
Table 11 – Smartfren Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2020
Table 12 – Link Net Revenue Segments
Table 13 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2021
Table 14 – Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2019-2026
Table 15 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2020
Table 16 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2019-2026
Table 17 – Historical Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
Table 18 – Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
Table 19 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 20 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2021
Table 21 – Historical Broadband ARPU, 2014-2021
Table 22 – Indonesia Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026
Table 23 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Indonesia
Table 24 – Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2020
Table 25 – Indonesia Telecom Towers Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 26 – Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison (1 of 2)
Table 27 – Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison (2 of 2)
Table 28 – Indonesia Telecom Towers Transaction Database, 2008-2020
Table 29 – Indonesia Telecom Towers and Rooftops, Revenue, Mobile Subscribers, Penetration & ARPU Forecast, 2020-2025
Table 30 – Mitratel Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 31 – Historical Tower Bersama Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2020
Table 32 – Tower Bersama Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 33 – Historical Protelindo Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2020
Table 34 – Protelindo Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 35 – Centratama Menara Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 36 – IBS Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 37 – STP Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 38 – Bali Tower Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 39 – Telkom, Indosat, XL Axiata, Link Net, Protelindo, DigitalBridge Telco Infrastructure Landscape
Table 40 – Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 41 – Telco Transaction Database, 2008-2021

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS INDONESIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:
BizNet, GoJek, Indosat, Kabel MNC Play, Link Net, Mitratel, MyRepublic, Protelindo, Smartfren, Telkom, Telkomsel, Tokopedia, Tower Bersama, Tri Indonesia, XL Axiata.

Other Idem Est Research Telecoms Country Reports

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