Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report – 2023-2030


This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Indonesian telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G, digital infrastructure and also features the following: Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview…



  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

The Indonesia Telecommunications Industry Report, 2023-2030 includes an overview of the Indonesian market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.


Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report: Key Developments, Growth Prospects, and Investment Opportunities

Welcome to the Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report, a comprehensive overview of one of the world’s fastest-growing telecommunications markets. As data infrastructure becomes increasingly critical in our connected world, the telecom sector plays a vital role in national economies, attracting large infrastructure funds and driving economic growth. Despite political uncertainties and the inflationary pressure’s economic impact, the Indonesian telecommunications industry is expected to remain steady due to its defensive nature.

Key Developments Covered in the Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report:

  1. Merger of Indosat and Tri Indonesia
  2. Acquisition of Link Net by XL Axiata
  3. Consolidation of towecos
  4. Launch of 5G services
  5. FTTH investments drive strong growth in consumer fixed broadband services

According to Idem Est Research, 5G mobile subscribers are projected to represent 76% of all subscriptions in Indonesia by 2030. Meanwhile, 4G connections are estimated to account for about 22.4% of all connections, with 2G and 3G representing a minimal share or potentially being phased out. Major players like Indosat and Telkomsel have already launched 5G services, and subscriber uptake is expected to reach approximately 5.7 million by the end of 2023. By 2030, the Indonesian market is projected to have nearly 300 million 5G subscribers.

The Indonesian telecommunications market thrives as a mobile-centric industry, featuring four large network operators and a dominant fixed-line provider with a near-monopoly. Strong economic fundamentals underpin the overall market, positioning Indonesia as one of the fastest-growing telecom markets globally. The growth is driven by both mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions, with Idem Est Research forecasting continued strong growth in mobile subscriptions from 2023 to 2030, following a temporary slowdown in 2018. Fixed broadband subscribers will also experience sustained growth, accompanied by an increase in household penetration.

The main drivers of growth in the telecoms sector are expanded coverage, greater affordability, service improvements, increased data usage, and higher smartphone penetration. Indonesia continues to expand its fiber-optic network and 4G coverage through significant capital expenditure investments. The telecoms sector has witnessed rapid investment growth, and this momentum is expected to be maintained throughout the 2023-2030 period.

Idem Est Research predicts strong overall growth in the telecoms market until 2030 with more capital investments required outside of Java, phasing out of 3G nationwide to make room for 4G to all Indonesians.

Capex Investments:

The Capex to GDP ratio has remained relatively stable between 2016 and 2022. Telecommunications operators are investing heavily in expanding their 4G coverage and capacity to meet the growing data demand and smartphone adoption. Idem Est Research projects an average Capex spending growth of 4.4% between 2023 and 2030.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue:

The mobile subscriber penetration rate experienced a temporary decline in 2018 and 2023 due to new SIM registration requirements and the phasing out of 3G. However, Idem Est Research forecasts a resumption and acceleration of growth of 1.5% during the 2023-2030 forecast period.

Mobile network operators face competitive pressure as the market shifts towards unlimited voice, text, and data offerings. Indonesia’s mobile data pricing is expected to catch up with neighboring countries as 4G coverage accelerates and smartphone penetration increases, especially in regional areas.

Broadband Subscribers – FTTH Push:

Idem Est Research expects sustained broadband subscriber growth driven by household expansion and improved connectivity for previously underserved premises through FTTH services.

The Indonesian fixed broadband market is experiencing strong year-on-year growth and is expected to continue growing from 2023 to 2030, with lower pricing targeting new layers of lower socio-economic with prepaid packaging. The expanding middle-income class in Indonesia, with a growing appetite for high-speed data, is driving fixed broadband adoption and household penetration.

Thematics – Telecoms Infrastructure, 5G, M&A, e-Commerce:

The completion of the Palapa Ring national broadband network has laid the foundation for enhanced connectivity. The arrival of 4G transformed the internet from desktops to handheld devices, while 5G has the potential to revolutionize virtual and augmented reality experiences and autonomous vehicles. The outcomes and benefits of 5G, including business models, investments, and timelines, are yet to be fully understood.

Investment funds are valuing telecommunications infrastructure assets, such as mobile towers, data centers, submarine cables, and fiber infrastructure, with high valuation multiples. The report highlights real market examples and benchmarks to provide insights into investor views and valuations.

Telecommunications operators are heavily investing in both fixed and mobile segments, upgrading their 4G network infrastructure. Idem Est Research expects a wave of consolidation in Indonesia, potentially starting from 2022-2023, driven by squeezed margins and the upcoming 5G Capex cycle.

Increased smartphone penetration, fueled by the availability of affordable devices, has led to significant growth in e-commerce. Leading players like GoJek, Tokopedia, Grab, and Bukalapak dominate e-commerce, ride-sharing, and mobile payments, capitalizing on Indonesia’s emerging middle class with higher disposable income.

Explore the Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report to gain in-depth insights into the market trends, investment opportunities, and the transformative impact of technology on the telecommunications sector in Indonesia.

Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report – TABLE OF CONTENTS

1       Key Statistics
1.1        Indonesia’s Population
1.2        Indonesia’s Economy
1.3        Indonesia’s GDP

2       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2016–2030
2.1        Market Overview
2.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2016-2030
2.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2022-2030
2.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2016-2030
2.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
2.4.2      Capex to Revenue Benchmark
2.4.3      Capex to GDP Benchmark
2.4.4      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2020-2030

3       Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1        Telkom Indonesia Profile
3.1.1      Telkom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.1.2      Telkomsel
3.2        Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison Profile
3.2.1      Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.2.2      Tri Indonesia (Historical Only)
3.2.3      Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3        XL Axiata
3.3.1      XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3.2      Link Net
3.3.3      Link Net Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Mix
3.4        Smartfren Profile
3.4.1      Smartfren Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Mix
3.5        Other Players Profile
3.5.1      MNC Vision
3.5.2      BizNet

4       Mobile Market
4.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
4.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2016-2023
4.1.3      Indonesia Smartphone Share, 2023
4.1.4      Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
4.1.5      Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
4.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.2.1      Historical Mobile Revenue, 2016-2022
4.2.1      Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2016-2022
4.2.2      Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2022–2030
4.2.3      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2016-2022
4.3        Spectrum Holdings
4.3.1      5G Development and Launches
4.3.2      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.3.3      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.4        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.5        Mobile Speed Tests
4.5.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.5.2      OpenSignal
4.6        Internet of Things (IoT)

5       Broadband Market
5.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
5.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030

6       Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
6.1        Fixed Digital Infrastructure
6.1.1      Palapa Ring Completed
6.1.2      FTTH – 20m premises to go
6.1.3      Submarine Cables

7       Indonesia Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
7.1        Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2022
7.1.1      Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Overview
7.1.2      Indonesia Telecom Towers Background
7.2        Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
7.3        Indonesia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
7.3.1      Indonesia Telecom Towers and Rooftops, Revenue, Penetration Forecast, 2022-2030
7.3.2      Regulatory Considerations
7.4        Mitratel Profile
7.4.1      Mitratel Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.5        Tower bersama Profile
7.5.1      Tower Bersama Revenue, EBITDA and Towers, 2016 – 2022
7.5.2      Tower Bersama Key Performance Indicators
7.6        Protelindo Profile
7.6.1      Protelindo Revenue, EBITDA and Towers, 2016 – 2022
7.6.2      Protelindo Key Performance Indicators
7.6.3      STP Telecom Profile (Now Protelindo)
7.6.4      STP Towers Key Performance Indicators (Historical, now Protelindo)
7.7        Centratama Menara Profile
7.7.1      Centratama Menara Revenue, EBITDA and Tower Statistics, 2016 – 2022
7.7.2      Centratama Menara Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.8        IBS Towers Profile
7.8.1      IBS Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.9        Bali Tower Telecom Profile
7.9.1      Bali Tower Towers Key Performance Indicators
7.10      Tower Density Benchmark

8       Thematics / Opportunities
8.1        Consolidation Opportunities
8.2        Diversification Opportunities
8.3        New Telecoms Operating Model
8.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
8.4        5G Developments
8.4.1      5G Overview
8.4.2      5G – Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
8.4.3      5G OpenRAN
8.4.4      Beyond 5G and Towards 6G

9       Telco Transaction Database

10     Methodology

11     Copyright Notice

Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Indonesia
Figure 2 –Revenue Profile Historical Mix (IDR bn), 2016 – 2022
Figure 3 – Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2022
Figure 5 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2022
Figure 6 – Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (IDR tn), 2022-2030
Figure 7 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2016-2022
Figure 8 – Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2016-2022
Figure 9 – Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2030
Figure 10 – Telkom Indonesia Revenue Mix – 2016-2022
Figure 11 – Telkom Indonesia Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 – 2022 (IDR bn)
Figure 12 – Telkomsel Revenue Mix – 2016-2022
Figure 13 – Telkomsel Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 – 2022 (IDR bn)
Figure 14 – Indosat Revenue Mix – 2016-2022
Figure 15 – Indosat Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 – 2022 (IDR bn)
Figure 16 – Tri Indonesia Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2015-2021
Figure 17 – XL Axiata Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2016-2022
Figure 19 – Link Net Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2016-2022
Figure 18 – Smartfren Revenue Profile (IDR bn) and EBITDA Margin (%), 2016-2022
Figure 20 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 21 – Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 22 – Mobile Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 23 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 24 – Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 25 – Mobile Revenue Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 26 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast (IDR trillion), 2022-2030
Figure 27 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2016-2030
Figure 28 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2022
Figure 29 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2022
Figure 30 – Data Pricing Trends in the Asia Pacific (USD per GB per month), 2017-2022
Figure 31 – Spectrum available for IoT in Indonesia
Figure 32 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 33 – Indonesia Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2016-2022
Figure 34 – Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 35 – Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Share, 2022
Figure 36 – Indonesia Telecom Towers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 37 – Subscribers per Tower, 2022
Figure 38 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 39 – 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 40 – Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 41 – 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 42 – Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 43 – Telecom Infra Project – OpenRAN Vision

Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – Indonesia – Key Statistics
Table 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2016-2022
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022-2030
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
Table 5 – Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 6 – Historical Telkom Revenue & EBITDA, 2016-2022
Table 7 – Telkomsel Revenue & EBITDA, 2016-2022
Table 8 – Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2022
Table 9 – Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2015-2021
Table 10 – XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2022
Table 12 – Link Net Revenue Segments
Table 11 – Smartfren Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2022
Table 13 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2016-2023
Table 14 –Indonesia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 15 – Indonesia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 16 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2016-2022
Table 17 – Indonesia Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 18 – Historical Mobile ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 19 – Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
Table 20 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 21 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2016-2022
Table 22 – Historical Broadband ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 23 – Indonesia Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 24 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Indonesia
Table 25 – Indonesia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2022
Table 26 – Indonesia Telecom Towers Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 27 – Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison (1 of 2)
Table 28 – Indonesia Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison (2 of 2)
Table 29 – Indonesia Telecom Towers Transaction Database, 2008-2023
Table 30 – Indonesia Telecom Towers and Rooftops, Revenue, Mobile Subscribers, Penetration & ARPU Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 31 – Mitratel Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 32 – Historical Tower Bersama Revenue, EBITDA and Tower Statistics, 2016-2022
Table 33 – Tower Bersama Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 34 – Historical Protelindo Revenue, EBITDA and Tower Statistics, 2016-2022
Table 35 – Protelindo Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 36 – STP Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2020 (Historical)
Table 37 – Historical Centratama Menara Revenue, EBITDA and Tower Statistics, 2016-2022
Table 38 – Centratama Menara Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 39 – IBS Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 40 – Bali Tower Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 41 – Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 42 – Telco Transaction Database, 2008-2023

BizNet, Centratama, DigitalBridge, EdgePoint, FiberStar, Gihon, GoJek, IBS Towers, IndiHome, Indosat, Kabel MNC Play, Link Net, Mitratel, MyRepublic, Protelindo, Smartfren, Telkom, Telkomsel, Tokopedia, Tower Bersama, Tri Indonesia, XL Axiata.

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