Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report – 2020-2025

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This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Myanmar telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Telecoms Infrastructure Review: Towers, backbone fibre, submarine cables & data centres
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

About this report:
Pages: 66
Author: Landry Fevre
Publication Date: February 2021
License: Single User PDF

Description

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE MYANMAR TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insights on emerging trends supporting, enhancing or disrupting your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

The Myanmar Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025 includes a comprehensive review of the Burmese market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance

Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. Idem Est Research expects the Burmese telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Myanmar is among the fastest developing telecommunications market in the world, mainly driven by the late investments from 2014 onwards. Myanmar, once labelled one of the world’s most repressive, censored and underdeveloped telecommunications sectors, has adopted a host of reforms to rapidly improve the nation’s economy and quality of life of its citizens.

Idem Est Research expects the Burmese telecommunications industry to continue its expansion thanks to the defensiveness of the sector and despite the social and public health impacts, amid an uncertain political and economic outlook due to the 2021 military coup and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Growing mobile phone penetration and high fixed broadband take-up among households will fuel future growth over the next five years.

Following the market expansion over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts subdued revenue growth growing to 2025, with the Covid-19 pandemic, the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue and low population growth.

Fixed lines subscriptions remains very small and stagnating while fixed broadband is slowly taking off with subscriptions  comprising mostly of FTTH connections, broadband fibre investments are emerging and growth is expected to flow through over the forecast period.

The telecommunications market is dominated by one large incumbent integrated operator – Myanmar Post Telecommunications – with mobile and fixed infrastructure competing with three other mobile operators, Ooredoo Myanmar, Telenor Myanmar and MyTel and emerging fibre broadband operators, YTP, MyanmarNet and 5BB Broadband.

Overall revenue share shifted to the new entrants at the expense of MPT over the 2014-2019 period. The telecommunications revenue profile highlights the expansion of Ooredoo Myanmar and Telenor Myanmar from a standing start in 2014 while MPT faced pressure in its mobile business facing off the new entrants and registering a decline in revenue from 2014 to 2017

Capex Investments

The Capex to GDP ratio soared from 2014 after decades of under-investments in the sector after Ooredoo and Telenor won mobile licenses. Both operators started to invest heavily in the market with the ratio reaching during the build phase in 2014 and 2015 and stabilised  in 2019 and 2020. Idem Est research estimates that the ratio will remain stable but lower throughout the 2021-25 forecast period.The Capex to GDP ratio spiked between 2012 and 2014 and started to slide downwards and growing from 2019 onwards.

Overall Capex investments are still lagging behind compared to other South-Asian countries as the market opened up to competition only in 2014 and after a steep take-up phase leading to high mobile penetration, operators are taking stock of their strategies and looking for profitability in a highly competitive market. Fixed broadband investments are only emerging with MPT investing in fibre-to-the-home infrastructure followed by smaller providers looking for an early land grab in this nascent greenfield market.

The Capex from telecommunications operators grew from nearly zero investments in 2000 to explode from 2013 onwards, as foreign investments flowed through via mobile operators building out their 4G coverage, increasing capacity to fulfil strong data demand and increased smartphones take-up. Idem Est Research expects Capex spend to grow strongly between 2019 to 2025.

Operator Profiles

The Burmese four-player mobile market is a very competitive, having achieved over 90% 4G population coverage, all operators are broadening their range of services to FTTH and e-commerce.

Between 2014 and 2020, both MPT lost revenue and EBITDA share to Telenor and Ooredoo over the last seven years, Mytel grew strongly at the expense of mostly Ooredoo and Telenor managing to grow a significant share in just two years of operations.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

Average annual mobile revenue growth was lower than mobile service subscriptions growth during the period 2014-2020, highlighting the competitve challenges faced by mobile operators. Declining voice & SMS revenue only partially offset by wireless data monetisation is putting pressure on ARPU, compounded by bundling discounts to stem churn.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, Myanmar remains among he most expensive South East Asian countries, despite the big cost reduction per GB over the last 3 years, while India has the lowest rate in the world with just a few cents per GB.

Broadband Subscribers – FTTH Push to more townships

The Burmese fixed broadband is one the last frontier in terms of telecommunications opportunity in the Asia Pacific market, it is vastly underdeveloped, underinvested and is just attracting new investments from large and small local investors. The Burmese fixed broadband market has among the lowest household penetration in the world. The market started to grow after private broadband operators such as 5BB Broadband, YTP, MyanmarNet started to invest in FTTH initially in large cities. MPT also is investing in FTTH covering the most townships (64 out of 351) with its Dome Pyan Fibre Internet product.

ThematicsTelecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure

Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

Our Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report transactions database analysis highlights the dearth of inbound (domestic) transactions in the Myanmar telecommunications services market, with the largest transactions from private equity firms bulking up their mobile tower portfolios and consolidating their position by acquiring smaller operators. Most other transactions are expected in the data centre, IoT and cloud computing sector with local operators investing in e-Commerce and enterprise services.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS MYANMAR TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

5BB Broadband, Hyalroute (MFOCN), Irrawaddy Green Tower (IGT) Myanmar Post & Telecommunications (MPT), MyanmarNet, Mytel, Ooredoo Myanmar, Telenor Myanmar, YTP

Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report – Table of Contents

1       Key Statistics
1.1        Myanmar’s Population & Households
1.2        2021 Military Coup
1.3        Myanmar’s Economy
1.4        Myanmar’s GDP

2       COVID-19 Impact

3       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014–2025
3.1        Market Overview
3.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2020
3.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2019-2025
3.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
3.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2020
3.4.2      Capex to Revenue Benchmark
3.4.3      Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
3.4.4      Capex to GDP Benchmark
3.4.5      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2000-2025

4       Telecommunications Operators Profile
4.1        Myanmar Post and Telecommunications Profile
4.1.1      MPT Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.2        Telenor Myanmar
4.2.1      Telenor Myanmar Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.3        Ooredoo Myanmar Profile
4.3.1      Ooredoo Myanmar Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.4        MyTel
4.4.1      Mytel Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.5        Other Players Profile
4.5.1      Yatanarpon Teleport
4.5.2      5BB Broadband
4.5.3      Other Broadband Providers

5       Mobile market
5.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
5.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2020
5.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2020
5.1.3      Myanmar Smartphone Share, 2020
5.1.4      Myanmar Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
5.1.5      Myanmar Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2018-2025
5.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
5.2.1      Historical Mobile Revenue, 2014-2020
5.2.1      Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2014-2020
5.2.2      Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018–2025
5.2.3      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2020
5.3        Spectrum Holdings
5.3.1      Existing Spectrum Holdings and 5G Trials
5.3.2      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
5.3.1      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
5.4        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
5.5        Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.2      OpenSignal
5.6        Internet of Things (IoT)

6       Broadband Market
6.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2020
6.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025

7       Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1        Fixed Infrastructure
7.1.1      Domestic Fibre Infrastructure
7.1.2      FTTH – 6m premises to go
7.1.1      Submarine Cables
7.2        Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
7.2.1      4G Mobile Coverage Expansion
7.2.2      Mobile Tower Market, 2020
7.2.3      Tower Density Benchmark
7.3        Telco Infrastructure Comparative

8       Thematics / Opportunities
8.1        Increasing Scale – Consolidation
8.2        Growing Scope – Cross-Industry
8.3        New Telco Operating Model
8.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
8.4        5G Developments
8.4.1      5G Overview
8.4.2      5G – Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
8.4.3      5G OpenRAN
8.4.4      Beyond 5G

9       Telco Transaction Database

10     Methodology

11     Copyright Notice

Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Myanmar
Figure 2 –Revenue Profile Historical Mix (MMK bn), 2014 – 2020
Figure 3 – Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2020
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2020
Figure 5 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2020
Figure 6 – Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (MMK tn), 2019-2025
Figure 7 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2020
Figure 8 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2019
Figure 9 – Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2014-2019
Figure 10 – Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2025
Figure 11 – MPT Revenue Mix – 2014-2020
Figure 12 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2020
Figure 13 – Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2014-2020
Figure 14 – Mobile Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2015-2020
Figure 15 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
Figure 16 – Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2018-2025
Figure 17 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2020
Figure 18 – Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
Figure 19 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2020
Figure 20 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2020
Figure 21 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2019
Figure 22 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia Pacific (USD per GB per Month), 2017-2019
Figure 23 – Ookla Mobile Speedtest Ranking Comparison
Figure 24 – Spectrum available for IoT in Myanmar
Figure 25 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2020
Figure 26 – Myanmar Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2015-2020
Figure 27 – Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
Figure 28 – Myanmar – Base Station Transceiver Rollout by Operators and by generation, 2020
Figure 29 –Mobile Tower Market Share, 2020
Figure 30 – Subscribers per Tower, 2020
Figure 31 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 32 – 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 33 – Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 34 – 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 35 – Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 36 – Telecom Infra Project – OpenRAN Vision

Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – Myanmar – Key Statistics
Table 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2014-2019
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019-2025
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-20120
Table 5 – Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2019-2025
Table 6 – Historical MPT Revenue & EBITDA, 2014-2020
Table 7 – Telenor Myanmar Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
Table 8 – Ooredoo Myanmar Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2020
Table 9 – Mytel Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2017-2020
Table 10 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2020
Table 11 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
Table 12 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
Table 13 – Historical Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
Table 14 – Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
Table 15 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 16 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2020
Table 17 – Backbone Fibre Routes and Length, 2019
Table 18 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Myanmar
Table 19 –Base Station Transceiver Count by Operator and Generation, 2020
Table 20 – Telkom, Indosat, XL Axiata and Link Net Telco Infrastructure Landscape
Table 21 – Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 22 – Telco Transaction Database, 2014-2020

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