Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report – 2022-2027

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The second edition of this report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Myanmar telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Telecoms Infrastructure Review: Towers, backbone fibre, submarine cables & data centres
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

About this report:
2nd Edition
Pages: 77
Author: Landry Fevre
Publication Date: March 2022
License: Single User PDF

Description

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE MYANMAR TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insights on emerging trends supporting, enhancing or disrupting your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

The Myanmar Telecommunications Industry Report, 2022-2027 includes a comprehensive review of the Burmese market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance

Key Developments:

  • Military coup impacting foreign direct investments
  • New 15% tax on Internet data (mobile and fixed)
  • Telenor’s market exit from Myanmar is expected to be finalised in 2022 with the lebanon headquartered M1 Group and the Shwe Byain Phyu Group expected to take over the operations.
  • Marked slowdown in tower infrastructure rollout.
  • Mytel growth in both mobile broadband services

Idem Est Research expects the Myanmar telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Myanmar was among the fastest developing telecommunications market in the world, mainly driven by the late investments from 2014 onwards. Myanmar, now is once again labelled as one of the world’s most repressive, censored country. The military junta is undermining the host of reforms that rapidly improved the nation’s economy and quality of life of its citizens.

Idem Est Research expects the Burmese telecommunications industry to continue its expansion thanks to the defensiveness of the sector and despite the social and public health impacts, amid an uncertain political and economic outlook due to the 2021 military coup and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Growing mobile phone penetration and high fixed broadband take-up among households will fuel future growth over the next five years.

Following the market expansion over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts moderate revenue growth growing to 2027, with the Covid-19 pandemic, the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue and low population growth.

Fixed lines subscriptions remains very small and stagnating while fixed broadband is slowly taking off with subscriptions  comprising mostly of FTTH connections, broadband fibre investments are emerging and growth is expected to flow through over the forecast period.

The telecommunications market is dominated by one large incumbent integrated operator – Myanmar Post Telecommunications – with mobile and fixed infrastructure competing with three other mobile operators, Ooredoo Myanmar, Telenor Myanmar and MyTel and emerging fibre broadband operators, YTP, MyanmarNet and 5BB Broadband.

Overall revenue share shifted to the new entrants at the expense of MPT over the 2014-2021 period. The telecommunications revenue profile highlights the expansion of Ooredoo Myanmar and Telenor Myanmar from a standing start in 2014 while MPT faced pressure in its mobile business facing off the new entrants and registering a decline in revenue from 2014 to 2017

Capex Investments

The Capex to GDP ratio soared from 2014 after decades of under-investments in the sector after Ooredoo and Telenor won mobile licenses. Both operators started to invest heavily in the market with the ratio reaching during the build phase in 2014 and 2015 and stabilised  in 2019 and 2020. Idem Est research estimates that the ratio will remain stable but lower throughout the 2022-27 forecast period. The Capex to GDP ratio spiked between 2012 and 2014 and started to slide downwards and growing from 2019 onwards.

Overall Capex investments are still lagging behind compared to other South-Asian countries as the market opened up to competition only in 2014 and after a steep take-up phase leading to high mobile penetration, operators are taking stock of their strategies and looking for profitability in a highly competitive market. Fixed broadband investments are only emerging with MPT investing in fibre-to-the-home infrastructure followed by smaller providers looking for an early land grab in this nascent greenfield market.

The Capex from telecommunications operators grew from nearly zero investments in 2000 to explode from 2013 onwards, as foreign investments flowed through via mobile operators building out their 4G coverage, increasing capacity to fulfil strong data demand and increased smartphones take-up. Idem Est Research expects Capex spend to grow strongly between 2022 to 2027.

Operator Profiles

The Burmese four-player mobile market is a very competitive, having achieved over 95% 4G population coverage, all operators are broadening their range of services to FTTH and e-commerce.

Between 2014 and 2021, both MPT lost revenue and EBITDA share to Telenor and Ooredoo over the last seven years, Mytel grew strongly at the expense of mostly Ooredoo and Telenor managing to grow a significant share in just two years of operations.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

Average annual mobile revenue growth was lower than mobile service subscriptions growth during the period 2015-2021, highlighting the competitve challenges faced by mobile operators. Declining voice & SMS revenue only partially offset by wireless data monetisation is putting pressure on ARPU, compounded by bundling discounts to stem churn.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, Myanmar remains among the most expensive South East Asian countries, despite the big cost reduction per GB over the last 4 years, while India has the lowest rate in the world with just a few cents per GB.

Broadband Subscribers – FTTH Push to more townships

The Burmese fixed broadband is one the last frontier in terms of telecommunications opportunity in the Asia Pacific market, it is vastly underdeveloped, underinvested and is just attracting new investments from large and small local investors. The Burmese fixed broadband market has among the lowest household penetration in the world. The market started to grow after private broadband operators such as 5BB Broadband, YTP, Mytel, MyanmarNet started to invest in FTTH initially in large cities. MPT also is investing in FTTH covering the most townships (64 out of 351) with its Dome Pyan Fibre Internet product.

ThematicsTelecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure

Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

Our Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report transactions database analysis highlights the dearth of inbound (domestic) transactions in the Myanmar telecommunications services market, with the largest transactions from private equity firms bulking up their mobile tower portfolios and consolidating their position by acquiring smaller operators. Most other transactions are expected in the data centre, IoT and cloud computing sector with local operators investing in e-Commerce and enterprise services.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS MYANMAR TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

5BB Broadband, Hyalroute (MFOCN), Irrawaddy Green Tower (IGT) Myanmar Post & Telecommunications (MPT), MyanmarNet, Mytel, Ooredoo Myanmar, Telenor Myanmar, YTP

Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report – Table of Contents

1       Key Statistics
1.1        Myanmar’s Population & Households
1.2        2021 Military Coup
1.3        Myanmar’s Economy
1.4        Myanmar’s GDP

2       COVID-19 IMPACT

3       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2015–2027
3.1        Market Overview
3.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2015-2021
3.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2020-2027
3.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2015-2027
3.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2015-2021
3.4.2      Capex to Revenue Benchmark
3.4.3      Capex to GDP Benchmark
3.4.4      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2000-2027

4       Telecommunications Operators Profile
4.1        Myanmar Post and Telecommunications Profile
4.1.1      MPT Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.2        Telenor Myanmar
4.2.1      Telenor Myanmar Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.3        Ooredoo Myanmar Profile
4.3.1      Ooredoo Myanmar Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.4        MyTel
4.4.1      Mytel Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.5        Other Players Profile
4.5.1      Yatanarpon Teleport
4.5.2      5BB Broadband
4.5.3      Other Broadband Providers

5       Mobile market
5.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2015-2027
5.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2015-2021
5.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2015-2021
5.1.3      Myanmar Smartphone Share, 2021
5.1.4      Myanmar Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027
5.1.5      Myanmar Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2020-2027
5.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2015-2027
5.2.1      Historical Mobile Revenue, 2015-2021
5.2.1      Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2015-2021
5.2.2      Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2020–2027
5.2.3      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2015-2021
5.3        Spectrum Holdings
5.3.1      Existing Spectrum Holdings and 5G Trials
5.3.2      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
5.3.1      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
5.4        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
5.5        Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.2      OpenSignal
5.6        Internet of Things (IoT)

6       Broadband Market
6.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2015-2021
6.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027

7       Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1        Fixed Digital Infrastructure
7.1.1      Domestic Fibre Infrastructure
7.1.2      FTTH – 6m premises to go
7.2        Submarine Cables

8       Myanmar Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2021
8.1        Myanmar Telecom Towers Market Overview
8.2        Myanmar Telecom Towers Background
8.3        4G Mobile Coverage Expansion
8.4        Myanmar Mobile Tower Infrastructure
8.4.1      Myanmar Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
8.5        Myanmar Telecom Towers & rooftops Market Forecast
8.5.1      Myanmar Telecom Towers Forecast 2022-2027
8.5.2      Regulatory Considerations
8.6        Myanmar Economic Cooperation Profile
8.6.1      Myanmar Economic Cooperation Key Performance Indicators
8.7        Irrawaddy Green Towers Profile
8.7.1      Irrawaddy Green Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.8        Eco Friendly Tower Profile
8.8.1      Eco Friendly Tower Key Performance Indicators
8.9        AP towers Profile
8.9.1      AP Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.10      edotco Profile
8.10.1     edotco Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.11      OCK Profile
8.11.1     OCK Key Performance Indicators
8.11.2     Tower Density Benchmark
8.12      Telco Infrastructure Comparative

9       Thematics / Opportunities
9.1        Consolidation Opportunities
9.2        Diversification Opportunities
9.3        New Telco Operating Model
9.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
9.4        5G Developments
9.4.1      5G Overview
9.4.2      5G – Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
9.4.3      5G OpenRAN
9.4.4      Beyond 5G

10     Telco Transaction Database

11     Methodology

12     Copyright Notice

Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Myanmar
Figure 2 –Revenue Profile Historical Mix (MMK bn), 2015 – 2021
Figure 3 – Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2021
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2021
Figure 5 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2021
Figure 6 – Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (MMK tn), 2020-2027
Figure 7 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2021
Figure 8 – Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2014-2021
Figure 9 – Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2027
Figure 10 – MPT Revenue Mix – 2015-2021
Figure 11 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2015-2021
Figure 12 – Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2015-2021
Figure 13 – Mobile Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2015-2021
Figure 14 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 15 – Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 16 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2015-2021
Figure 17 – Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 18 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2015-2027
Figure 19 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2021
Figure 20 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2021
Figure 21 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia Pacific (USD per GB per Month), 2017-2021
Figure 22 – Spectrum available for IoT in Myanmar
Figure 23 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2015-2020
Figure 24 – Myanmar Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2015-2021
Figure 25 – Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 27 – Myanmar Mobile Towers Market Share, 2021
Figure 26 – Myanmar – Base Station Transceiver Rollout by Operators and by generation, 2021
Figure 28 – Myanmar Telecom Towers Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 29 – Subscribers per Tower, 2021
Figure 30 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 31 – 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 32 – Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 33 – 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 34 – Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 35 – Telecom Infra Project – OpenRAN Vision

Myanmar Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – Myanmar – Key Statistics
Table 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2015-21
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2020-2027
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2015-2021
Table 5 – Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2021-2027
Table 6 – Historical MPT Revenue & EBITDA, 2015-2021
Table 7 – Telenor Myanmar Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2015-2021
Table 8 – Ooredoo Myanmar Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2015-2021
Table 9 – Mytel Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2017-2021
Table 10 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2015-2021
Table 11 – Myanmar Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027
Table 12 – Myanmar Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2020-2027
Table 13 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2015-2021
Table 14 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2020-2027
Table 15 – Historical Mobile ARPU, 2015-2021
Table 16 – Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
Table 17 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 18 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2015-2021
Table 19 – Backbone Fibre Routes and Length, 2019
Table 20 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Myanmar
Table 22 – Myanmar Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2021
Table 23 – Myanmar Tenant Indicative Tower Leasing Monthly Fees
Table 21 –Base Station Transceiver Count by Operator and Generation, 2021
Table 24 – Myanmar Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
Table 25 – Myanmar Telecom Towers, Revenue, Mobile Subscribers, Penetration & ARPU Forecast, 2020-2027
Table 26 – Myanmar Economic Cooperation Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 27 – Irrawaddy Green Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 28 – Eco Friendly Key Performance Indicators, 2021
Table 29 – AP Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 30 – edotco Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 31 – OCK Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 32 – Telkom, Indosat, XL Axiata and Link Net Telco Infrastructure Landscape
Table 33 – Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 34 – Telco Transaction Database, 2014-2022

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