New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report – 2019-2025

AUD1,818.00

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Kiwi telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and Infrastructure
  • Telco Infrastructure Review
  • Telco Transaction Database

About this report:
Pages: 56
Author: Landry Fevre
Publication Date: December 2019

Description

 

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE NEW ZEALAND TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

The New Zealand Telecommunications Industry Report, 2019-2025 includes a comprehensive review of the New Zealand market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance
The New Zealand telecommunications New Zealand is a stable mobile market with 3 network operators, a nationwide full-fibre wholesale broadband network and the overall market underpinned by strong economic fundamentals. 

Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-25 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2005, sliding down every year since then.

Mobile subscribers numbers and revenue are growing strongly and the back of population growth and the market shift to postpaid.

Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow through to 2025 after a marked slow down in 2017 and 2018 due to legacy voice revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth.

Capex Investments
The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2018 but is expected to remain at the same level through to 2025. Idem Est Research estimates that the ratio will settle back by 2023 peaking in 2020. Chorus is still investing heavily in fibre infrastructure until 2022 while Spark and Vodafone have more conservative investment profiles.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue
Over the last five years, the market shifted to postpaid as subscribers move to Pay Monthly offerings (SIM-only plans) with increased data allowances. Overall, the number of prepaid subscribers decreased slightly. Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. New Zealand has the highest pricing per GB and Kiwis downloaded the least amount of data over their mobile phones.

Broadband Subscribers – FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless
The Ultra-Fast Broadband Initiative is a New Zealand Government program of building fibre-to-the-home networks covering 87% of the population by the end of 2022, FTTP will be deployed to 1.8 million households and businesses in 390 cities and towns. It is a public-private partnership of the government with four companies with a total government investment of NZ$1.7 billion.

The broadband market is now experiencing low growth mostly driven by new premises construction in greenfield developments or urban redevelopments. The UFB government project reached over 1.5m premises and connected 53% of them or 821,000 premises. 

Households growth and a reduction of the number of underserved premises, previously not able to connect now served by UFB2, will drive up the fixed-broadband subscribers. 

ThematicsTelecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. 

In 2019, Morrisson & Co (Infratil) and Brookfield, both infrastructure funds, bought Vodafone NZ for NZ$3.4 billion (EV/EBITDA of .c7). Globally, many infrastructure funds are investing in mobile towers, FTTH, data centres, submarine cables while that trend is likely to continue over time with more proactive transactions.

Idem Est Research predicts the next wave of transactions is likely to continue being about “scale” among small ISPs and largely about infrastructure for Spark, Vodafone and 2degrees.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT:
2degrees, Brookfield, Crown Infrastructure Partner, Crown Fibre Holding, Chorus, Enable Networks, Infratil, Northpower, Telecom NZ, Snap, Spark, TelstraClear, Trustpower, Ultra-Fast Fibre, Vocus, Vodafone WEL Networks.

New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report – Table of Contents

1       Key Statistics
1.1        New Zealand Population
1.2        KIWI Households
1.3        NEW Zealand’s GDP

2       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014–2025
2.1        Market Overview
2.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2018
2.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018-2025
2.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
2.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
2.4.2      Capex to Revenue Benchmark
2.4.3      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2018-2025

3       Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1        Spark New Zealand Profile
3.1.1      Spark Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.2        Vodafone New Zealand Profile
3.2.1      Vodafone New Zealand Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3        2Degrees
3.3.1      2degrees Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.4        Chorus Profile
3.4.1      Chorus Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.5        Other Players Profile
3.5.1      Vocus New Zealand
3.5.2      Trustpower

4       Mobile Market
4.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
4.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
4.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019
4.1.3      New Zealand Smartphone Share, 2019
4.1.4      New Zealand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2025
4.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
4.2.1      Historical Mobile Revenue, 2014-2018
4.2.1      Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2014-2019
4.2.2      Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018–2025
4.2.3      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019
4.3        Mobile Coverage
4.4        Spectrum Holdings
4.4.1      Historical of Spectrum Auctions and Costs
4.4.2      Upcoming 5G Auctions in 2022
4.4.3      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.5        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.6        Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.7        Internet of Things (IoT)

5       Broadband Market
5.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
5.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025

6       Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
6.1        Fixed Infrastructure
6.1.1      The Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB)
6.1.2      Submarine Cables
6.2        Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
6.2.1      Small Tightly Held Tower Market
6.3        Telco Infrastructure Comparative

7       Thematics / Opportunities
7.1        Going for Scale
7.2        Going for Scope
7.3        New Telco Operating Model
7.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
7.4        5G versus Fixed
7.4.1      5G Overview
7.4.2      Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting Long Term

8       Telco Transaction Database

9       Methodology

10     Copyright Notice

New Zealand – Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in New Zealand
Figure 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2018
Figure 3 – Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2018
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2018
Figure 5 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2019
Figure 6 – Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2025
Figure 7 – Spark Service Revenue Mix, FY14-FY19
Figure 8 – Spark Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2018 (NZ$ m)
Figure 9 – Vodafone New Zealand Revenue Mix, 2016-2019
Figure 10 – Vodafone New Zealand Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2019
Figure 11 – 2degrees Revenue and EBITDA, 2014-2019e
Figure 12 – Chorus Service Revenue Mix, FY14-FY19
Figure 13 – Chorus Historical Revenue Mix, FY14 – FY18 (NZ$ m)
Figure 14 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
Figure 15 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
Figure 16 – Mobile Revenue Share Comparison, 2014-2018
Figure 17 – Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
Figure 18 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU (NZ$), 2014-2019
Figure 19 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2010-2019
Figure 20 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2019
Figure 21 – Ookla Mobile Speedtest Ranking Comparison
Figure 22 – Spectrum available for IoT in New Zealand
Figure 23 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
Figure 24 – UFB Services by Speed
Figure 25 – Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
Figure 26 – 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 27 – Australia – Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019

New Zealand Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – New Zealand – Key Statistics
Table 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019-2025
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
Table 5 – Historical Spark Service Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, FY14-FY19
Table 6 – Vodafone New Zealand Service Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2019
Table 7 – 2degrees Service Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019e
Table 8 – Chorus Wholesale UFB Pricing, 2019
Table 9 – Historical Chorus Service Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, FY14-FY19
Table 10 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2019
Table 11 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019e
Table 12 – Historical Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
Table 13 – Historical of Spectrum Auctions and Costs
Table 14 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (Mhz)
Table 15 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2019
Table 16 – Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2014-2019
Table 17 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing stations in New Zealand
Table 18 – Spark, Vodafone, Vocus and Chorus Telco Infrastructure Landscape
Table 19 – Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 20 – Australia – Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019
Table 21 – Telco Transaction Database, 2001-2019

Other Idem Est Research Telecoms Country Reports

Australia, China, India, Indonesia, JapanNew ZealandPhilippines, Malaysia, South Korea, TaiwanThailand, Vietnam

Telecoms Country Report

 

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