Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – 2021-2026

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This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Vietnamese telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G, digital infrastructure and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Digital Infrastructure (Fibre, Telecom Towers, Data Centres, Submarine Cables)
  • Telecom Tower Market Analysis and Forecast
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

About this report:
Pages: 76
Author: Landry Fevre
Publication Date: July 2021
License: Single User PDF

Description

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE VIETNAM INDUSTRY TELECOMS REPORT:

  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients

The Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report, 2021-2026 includes a comprehensive review of the Vietnamese market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance
The Vietnamese telecommunications market is a booming market with huge opportunities for local and foreign investors, amid a competitive environment and a positive economic outlook with an average growth of 8% GDP expected between 2021 and 2026. With already strong mobile phone penetration and emerging fixed broadband take-up in households, future growth is likely to remain solid despite an aging population over the long term.

Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2020-26 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2015, sliding down every year since then.

Mobile revenue is growing faster than mobile subscription numbers leading to ARPU growth as the market transitions from 2G & 3G to 4G mobile data services.

Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow through to 2025 after a marked slow down in 2018 and 2019 due to legacy 2G voice & SMS revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth.

Capex Investments
The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2018 but has been sliding in 2019 and is expected to remain at the same level through to 2025. Viettel, Vinaphone and Mobifone investing in line with revenue growth maintaining a sable Capex to Sales Ratio.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue
In early 2020, the mobile subscriptions market just passed a tipping point with 3G and 4G subscribers exceeding 2G mobile subscriptions for the first time. Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting from legacy prepaid voice and SMS to data-centric usage increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.

Idem Est Research forecasts 5G mobile subscribers will represent nearly 33% of all subscriptions by 2026 or 44.7m subscribers. 4G will represent about 67% of all connections while 2G will be shut down in 2022 followed by 3G shutdown expected by 2023 if not switched off earlier.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Vietnam has a competitive pricing compared to other countries while the average monthly download is slightly lower due to Vietnam’s late market entry with 4G.

Broadband Subscribers – FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless
The fixed broadband market is experiencing hyper-growth mostly driven by three players, VNPT, Viettel and FPT all investing in full-fibre networks. VNPT actively migrated its MegaVNN (DSL) subscribers to its fibre FiberVNN network while Viettel and FPT are focusing on their respective fibre coverage.

VNPT, Viettel and FPT invested heavily in full-fibre networks opening opportunities for bundling IPTV and e-Commerce services leading the fastest broadband migration to full-fibre networks in the Asia-Pacific region.

Households growth and new FTTH investments by VNPT, Viettel, FPT and others will drive up the fixed-broadband subscribers.

ThematicsTelecoms Digital Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

The Vietnamese central role of the government in the telecommunications market with its three dominant players controlling over 90% of the market is limiting corporate activity. However, the government is also controlling sub-scale operators such as Gmobile, Hanoi Telecom, Saigon Post Tel, SCTV, among others which could be combined or merged. As the market matures, competition intensifies, sub-scale operators will struggle to gain share and are likely to look for outside opportunities to increase scale. Idem Est Research expects a wave of consolidation in Vietnam, as the Vietnamese market is maturing and is likely to face stiffer competition.

However, in the medium term, the telco sector is likely to experience some corporate activity with the government selling down VNPT and Mobifone by up to 50%. This is a momentous development in the market as until now, the government controls over 90% of the telecommunications market. Introduction of private investments, strategic investors or stock market listing will increase much-needed disclosure, transparency and accountability into the Vietnamese telecommunications market.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT:

CMC, FPT, Gmobile, Hanoi Telecom, Hutchison Asia Telecom, Mobifone, OCK, Saigon Post, Viettel, Vietnmaobile, Vinaphone, VNPT

Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – Table of Contents

1       Key Statistics
1.1        Vietnam Population
1.2        Vietnam’s Economy
1.3        Vietnam’s GDP

2       COVID-19 Impact

3       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014–2025
3.1        Market Overview
3.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2020
3.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2019-2026
3.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2026
3.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2020
3.4.2      Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
3.4.3      Capex to GDP Benchmark
3.4.4      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2019-2026

4       Telecommunications Operators Profile
4.1        Viettel Profile
4.1.1      Viettel Revenue and Profit Mix
4.2        VNPT Profile
4.2.1      VNPT Revenue and Profit Mix
4.1        Mobifone Profile
4.1.1      Mobifone Revenue and Profit Mix
4.2        FPT Profile
4.2.1      FPT Revenue and Profit Mix
4.3        CMC Corporation Profile
4.3.1      CMC Corp Revenue and Profit Mix
4.4        Vietnamobile
4.4.1      Vietnamobile
4.5        Other Players Profile

5       Mobile market
5.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2026
5.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2020
5.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2020
5.1.3      Vietnam Smartphone Share, 2020
5.1.4      Vietnam Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026
5.1.5      Vietnam Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2018-2026
5.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-20265.2.1      Historical Vietnam Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2020
5.2.2      Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2019–2026
5.2.3      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2020
5.3        Spectrum Holdings
5.3.1      Existing Spectrum Holdings
5.3.2      5G launches and Upcoming 5G Auctions
5.3.3      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
5.3.1      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
5.4        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
5.5        Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
5.6        Internet of Things (IoT)

6       Broadband Market
6.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2020
6.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026

7       Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1        Fixed Digital Infrastructure
7.2        Submarine Cables

8       Vietnam Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
8.1        Vietnam Mobile Digital Infrastructure
8.1.1      Vietnam Telecom Towers Market Overview
8.1.2      Vietnam Telecom Towers Background
8.2        Vietnam Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
8.2.1      Vietnam Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
8.3        Vietnam Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
8.3.1      Vietnam Telecom Towers Forecast, 2020-2025
8.4        OCK Profile
8.4.1      OCK Key Performance Indicators
8.5        Golden Tower Profile
8.5.1      Golden Tower Key Performance Indicators
8.6        Nisco Profile
8.6.1      Nisco Key Performance Indicators
8.7        Telco Digital Infrastructure Comparative

9       Thematics / Opportunities
9.1        Consolidation Opportunities
9.2        Diversification Opportunities
9.2.1      e-Commerce
9.2.2      Digital Payments
9.3        New Telecoms Operating Model
9.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
9.4        5G Developments
9.4.1      5G Overview
9.4.2      5G – Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
9.4.3      5G OpenRAN
9.4.4      Beyond 5G and Towards 6G

10     Telco M&A Transactions Database

11     Methodology

12     Copyright Notice

Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Vietnam
Figure 2 –Revenue Profile Historical Mix (VND bn), 2014 – 2020
Figure 3 – Telecommunications Market Revenue Pool, 2020
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Market Pre-Tax Profits Pool, 2020
Figure 5 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2020
Figure 6 – Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (VND bn), 2019-2026
Figure 7 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2020
Figure 8 – Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2014-2020
Figure 9 – Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2026
Figure 10 – Viettel Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2020
Figure 11 – Viettel Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2020 (VND bn)
Figure 12 – VNPT Telecommunications Revenue and Profit (VND trn), 2014-2020
Figure 13 – VNPT Historical Revenue Mix (VND bn), 2014 – 2020
Figure 14 – Mobifone Revenue and Profit Margin (VND trn), 2014-2020
Figure 15 – FPT Revenue and Profit Margin (VND bn), 2014-2020
Figure 16 – CMC Revenue and Profit Margin (VND bn), 2014-2020
Figure 17 – Vietnamobile Revenue and Revenue Growth (VND bn), 2014-2020
Figure 18 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2020
Figure 19 – Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2014-2020
Figure 20 – Mobile Prepaid & Postpaid Share Comparison, 2014-2020
Figure 21 – Mobile Prepaid/Postpaid Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2015-2020
Figure 22 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2014-2026
Figure 23 – Vietnam Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2018-2026
Figure 24 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2019-2026
Figure 25 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU (VND), 2014-2020
Figure 26 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2020
Figure 27 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2020
Figure 28 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2020
Figure 29 – Spectrum available for IoT in Vietnam
Figure 30 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2020
Figure 31 – Vietnam Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2015-2020
Figure 32 – Vietnam Broadband Services by Access Technology
Figure 33 – Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026
Figure 34 – Estimated Tower Market Share, 2020
Figure 35 – Vietnam Telecom Towers Forecast, 2020-2025
Figure 36 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 37 – 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 38 – Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 39 – 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 40 – Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 41 – Telecom Infra Project – OpenRAN Vision

Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – Vietnam – Key Statistics
Table 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019-2026
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2020
Table 5 – Historical Viettel Revenue, Pre-Tax Profit & Capex, 2014-2020
Table 6 – Historical VNPT Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2020
Table 7 – Historical Mobifone Revenue and Profit Mix, 2014-2020
Table 8 – Historical FPT Revenue, Pre-Tax Profit & Capex, 2014-2020
Table 9 – Historical CMC Corp Revenue, Pre-Tax-Profit, 2014-2020
Table 10 – Historical Vietnamobile Revenue, 2014-2019
Table 11 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2020
Table 12 – Vietnam Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026
Table 13 – Vietnam Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2019-2026
Table 14 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2020
Table 15 – Historical Mobile Market Blended Mobile ARPU, 2014-2020
Table 16 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (Mhz)
Table 17 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2020
Table 18 – Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2014-2020
Table 19 – Vietnam Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026
Table 20 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Vietnam
Table 21 – Vietnam Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2020
Table 22 – Vietnam Tenant Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 23 – Vietnam Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
Table 24 – Vietnam Telecom Towers, Mobile Subscribers, Penetration & ARPU Forecast, 2020-2025
Table 25 – OCK Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 26 – Golden Tower Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 27 – Nisco Key Performance Indicators, 2020
Table 28 – Viettel, VNPT, Mobifone, FPT, CMC Telco Digital Infrastructure Landscape
Table 29 – Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 30 – Telco Transaction Database, 2015-2020

Other Idem Est Research Telecoms Country Reports

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