Description
WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE VIETNAM INDUSTRY TELECOMS REPORT:
- Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
- Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
- Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
- Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
- Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients
The Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report, 2023-2030 includes a comprehensive review of the Vietnamese market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance
The Vietnamese telecommunications industry is thriving, presenting significant opportunities for both local and foreign investors. Despite a competitive landscape, the economic outlook is positive, with an expected average GDP growth of 10% between 2023 and 2030. The market’s strong mobile phone penetration and emerging fixed broadband adoption in households suggest sustained growth, even considering the aging population in the long run.
Key Developments:
- Mobile subscriptions are projected to continue increasing (+1.1%) from 2023 to 2030, accompanied by a rise in fixed broadband subscribers (+3.4%) and household penetration during the same period.
- While mobile subscription numbers are rising, mobile revenue is growing at an even faster rate due to the transition from 2G and 3G to 4G mobile data services.
- After a slowdown in 2018 and 2019 primarily due to pressure on legacy 2G voice and SMS revenue, the overall telecoms market is expected to grow until 2030 This is supported by mobile data growth offsetting the decline in 2G revenue.
- Investment in capital expenditure (Capex) remained stable , and this trend is expected to continue until 2030 with 5G Capex spending yet to be deployed while fixed broadband to FTTH is largely completed. Major telecom companies like Viettel, Vinaphone, and Mobifone are aligning their investments with revenue growth, maintaining a consistent Capex to Sales Ratio.
Mobile Market:
- In early 2020, the balance shifted, with 3G and 4G subscribers surpassing 2G mobile subscriptions for the first time. Mobile network operators are adapting to this change by shifting focus from traditional prepaid voice and SMS to data-centric services as the primary differentiator.
- Projected figures from Idem Est Research indicate that 5G mobile subscribers could reach around 66% of all connections by 2030, amounting to roughly 90 million subscribers. Meanwhile, 4G is expected to make up about 34% of total connections. The shutdown of 2G is scheduled for 2025, followed by a potential 3G shutdown by 2026 or earlier.
Broadband Market:
- The fixed broadband market is experiencing rapid growth driven by key players like VNPT, Viettel, and FPT, who are investing in full-fibre networks. This transition is promoting the migration to faster and more reliable broadband connections, with opportunities for services like IPTV and e-commerce.
- The expansion of households and new investments in fibre-optic technology by companies like VNPT, Viettel, and FPT will contribute to the growth of fixed-broadband subscribers.
Telecom Infrastructure and Investments:
- Infrastructure funds, pension funds, and government funds are placing high valuations on telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centers, submarine cables, and fibre networks.
- The report highlights real-world examples of how investors perceive and assess these investments, including industry benchmarks and EV/EBITDA comparisons.
Market Dynamics and Consolidation:
- Despite the significant government influence, with three major players controlling over 90% of the market, corporate activity is limited. However, smaller operators like Gmobile, Hanoi Telecom, Saigon Post Tel, and SCTV could potentially merge or consolidate due to intensified competition.
- As the Vietnamese market matures and competition increases, there is a likelihood of consolidation. In the medium term, the government might reduce its stake in VNPT and Mobifone by up to 50%, introducing private investments and enhancing transparency in the market.
5G and Future Transformations:
- The advent of 4G brought the Internet to our mobile devices, while 5G has the potential to revolutionize connectivity, enabling virtual experiences (augmented or virtual reality) and real-world applications (autonomous vehicles). However, the exact outcomes, business models, required investments, and timelines of 5G’s benefits remain uncertain.
KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT:
CMC, FPT, Gmobile, Hanoi Telecom, Hutchison Asia Telecom, Mobifone, OCK, Saigon Post, Viettel, Vietnamobile, Vinaphone, VNPT
Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – Table of Contents
1 Key Statistics
1.1 Vietnam Population
1.2 Vietnam’s Economy
1.3 Vietnam’s GDP
2 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2016–2030
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2016-2022
2.3 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2022-2030
2.4 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2016-2030
2.4.1 Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
2.4.2 Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
2.4.3 Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2000-2030
3 Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1 Viettel Profile
3.1.1 Viettel Revenue and Profit Mix
3.2 VNPT Profile
3.2.1 VNPT Revenue and Profit Mix
3.1 Mobifone Profile
3.1.1 Mobifone Revenue and Profit Mix
3.2 FPT Profile
3.2.1 FPT Revenue and Profit Mix
3.3 CMC Corporation Profile
3.3.1 CMC Corp Revenue and Profit Mix
3.4 Vietnamobile
3.4.1 Vietnamobile Revenue
3.5 Other Players Profile
4 Mobile market
4.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.1.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
4.1.2 Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2016-2022
4.1.3 Vietnam Smartphone Share, 2022
4.1.4 Vietnam Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
4.1.5 Vietnam Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
4.2 Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.2.1 Historical Vietnam Mobile Service Revenue, 2016-2022
4.2.2 Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2022–2030
4.2.3 Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2016-2022
4.3 Spectrum Holdings
4.3.1 Existing Spectrum Holdings
4.3.2 5G launches and Upcoming 5G Auctions
4.3.3 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.3.1 Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.4 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.5 Mobile Speed Tests
4.5.1 Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.6 Internet of Things (IoT)
5 Broadband Market
5.1 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
5.2 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
6 Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
6.1 Fixed Digital Infrastructure
6.2 Submarine Cables
7 Vietnam Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
7.1 Vietnam Mobile Digital Infrastructure
7.1.1 Vietnam Telecom Towers Market Overview
7.1.2 Vietnam Telecom Towers Background
7.2 Vietnam Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
7.2.1 Vietnam Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
7.3 Vietnam Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
7.3.1 Vietnam Telecom Towers Forecast, 2022-2030
7.4 OCK Profile
7.4.1 OCK Key Performance Indicators
7.5 Golden Tower Profile
7.5.1 Golden Tower Key Performance Indicators
7.6 Nisco Profile
7.6.1 Nisco Key Performance Indicators
7.7 Telco Digital Infrastructure Comparative
8 Thematics / Opportunities
8.1 Consolidation Opportunities
8.2 Diversification Opportunities
8.2.1 e-Commerce
8.2.2 Digital Payments
8.3 New Telco Operating Model
8.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
8.4 5G Developments
8.4.1 5G Overview
8.4.2 5G – Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
8.4.3 5G OpenRAN
8.4.4 Beyond 5G and Towards 6G
9 Telco M&A Transactions Database
10 Methodology
11 Copyright Notice
Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures
Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Vietnam
Figure 2 –Revenue Profile Historical Mix (VND bn), 2016 – 2022
Figure 3 – Telecommunications Market Revenue Pool, 2022
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Market Pre-Tax Profits Pool, 2022
Figure 5 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2022
Figure 6 – Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (VND bn), 2022-2030
Figure 7 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2016-2022
Figure 8 – Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2030
Figure 9 – Viettel Service Revenue Mix, 2016-2022
Figure 10 – Viettel Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 – 2022 (VND bn)
Figure 11 – VNPT Telecommunications Revenue and Profit (VND trn), 2016-2022
Figure 12 – VNPT Historical Revenue Mix (VND bn), 2016 – 2022
Figure 13 – Mobifone Revenue and Profit Margin (VND trn), 2016-2022
Figure 14 – FPT Revenue and Profit Margin (VND bn), 2016-2022
Figure 15 – CMC Revenue and Profit Margin (VND bn), 2016-2022
Figure 16 – Vietnamobile Revenue and Revenue Growth (VND bn), 2016-2022
Figure 17 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 18 – Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 19 – Mobile Prepaid & Postpaid Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 20 – Mobile Prepaid/Postpaid Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 21 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2016-2030
Figure 22 – Vietnam Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 23 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 24 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU (VND), 2015-2021
Figure 25 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2022
Figure 26 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2022
Figure 27 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2022
Figure 28 – Spectrum available for IoT in Vietnam
Figure 29 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2022
Figure 30 – Vietnam Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2016-2022
Figure 31 – Vietnam Broadband Services by Access Technology, 2014-2022
Figure 32 – Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2016-2030
Figure 33 – Estimated Tower Market Share, 2022
Figure 34 – Vietnam Telecom Towers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 35 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 36 – 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 37 – Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 38 – 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 39 – Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 40 – Telecom Infra Project – OpenRAN Vision
Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables
Table 1 – Vietnam – Key Statistics
Table 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022-2030
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
Table 5 – Historical Viettel Revenue, Pre-Tax Profit & Capex, 2016-2022
Table 6 – Historical VNPT Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2016-2022
Table 7 – Historical Mobifone Revenue and Profit Mix, 2016-2022
Table 8 – Historical FPT Revenue, Pre-Tax Profit & Capex, 2016-2022
Table 9 – Historical CMC Corp Revenue, Pre-Tax-Profit, 2016-2022
Table 10 – Historical Vietnamobile Revenue, 2016-2022
Table 11 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2016-2022
Table 12 – Vietnam Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2026
Table 13 – Vietnam Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 14 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2016-2022
Table 15 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 16 – Historical Mobile Market Blended Mobile ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 17 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (Mhz)
Table 18 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2016-2022
Table 19 – Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 20 – Vietnam Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 21 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Vietnam
Table 22 – Vietnam Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2022
Table 23 – Vietnam Tenant Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 24 – Vietnam Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
Table 25 – Vietnam Telecom Towers, Mobile Subscribers, Penetration & ARPU Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 26 – OCK Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 27 – Golden Tower Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 28 – Nisco Key Performance Indicators, 2022
Table 29 – Viettel, VNPT, Mobifone, FPT, CMC Telco Digital Infrastructure Landscape
Table 30 – Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 31 – Telco Transaction Database, 2015-2021
Other Idem Est Research Telecoms Country Reports
Australia, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam,
Asia Pacific Telecom Towers
