Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – 2022-2027

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This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Thailand telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G, digital infrastructure and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Digital Infrastructure (Fibre, Telecom Towers, Data Centres, Submarine Cables)
  • Telecom Tower Market Analysis and Forecast
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

About this report:
3rd Edition
Pages: 81
Author: Landry Fevre
Publication Date: September 2022
License: Single User PDF

Description

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE THAILAND TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insights on emerging trends supporting, enhancing or disrupting your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

The Thailand Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2027 includes a comprehensive review of the Thai market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance
Idem Est Research expects the Thailand telecommunications industry to grow strongly thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, despite the political uncertainties, amid an uncertain economic outlook due to the Covid-19 pandemic. With already strong mobile phone penetration and robust fixed broadband take-up among households, future growth is likely to remain solid despite subdued growth in the young working population and an ageing population over the long term.

Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2020-27 period and increase Internet and household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2015, sliding down every year since then.

Following the telecoms market expansion over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts sustained revenue growth to 2027, fuelled by data monetisation as long as data pricing stays rational amid the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue.

Mobile subscriptions are growing faster than mobile revenue leading to ARPU decline as the market completes its transition from 3G to 4G and 5G mobile data services.

The Thailand Telecoms Industry Report also reviews he mega mergers of DTAC and True Corp as well as AIS and Jasmine which will create a duopoly each claiming leadership in mobile and fixed broadband respectively.

Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow through to 2027 after a marked slow down in 2020 with legacy 3G voice & SMS revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth.

Capex Investments
The Capex to GDP ratio peaked in 2016 and has been sliding since, to its lowest in 2019. Capex investments will increase moderately through to 2028, as mobile operators invest in 5G, bolster their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand, maintaining a strong Capex to Sales Ratio.

Operator Profiles
AIS and True Corp gained revenue share in the 2015-2021 period at the expense of DTAC which just completed a strategic turnaround, TOT and CAT Telecom increased revenue from spectrum concessions but struggle to compete for fixed or mobile customers.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue
As the rate of growth of net additions in mobile subscriptions slows, telecommunications providers are channelling their efforts into reducing their cost base and raising ARPU through new value-added services using mobile data and bundling fixed and mobile services. The proportion of prepaid subscriptions shrank between 2014 and 2019 while the postpaid segment is  growing in popularity and reducing the number of people holding multiples SIMs.

Idem Est Research forecasts 5G mobile subscribers will represent nearly 65.7% or 73m subscribers of all subscriptions by 2027, 4G will represent about 47% of all connections while 3G will be probably be shut down by the end of 2025.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Thailand has a competitive pricing compared to other countries while the average monthly download is the highest in the region.

Broadband Subscribers – FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless
The fixed broadband market is experiencing strong growth mostly driven by three players, AIS, Jasmine and TrueOnline all investing in full-fibre networks. Jasmine actively migrated its DSL subscribers to its fibre network while TrueOnline and AIS are growing their subscriber base by capturing a large of broadband subscriber net-adds.

AIS, TrueOnline and Jasmine invested heavily in full-fibre networks opening opportunities for bundling IPTV and e-Commerce services leading the fastest broadband migration to full-fibre networks in the Asia-Pacific region.

Households growth and new FTTH investments by AIS, TrueOnline and Jasmine and others will drive up the fixed-broadband household penetration.

ThematicsTelecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

However, in the medium term, the telco sector is likely to digest the two mega mergers of DTAC and True Corp as well as AIs acquiring Jamsine. Despite, the government merging TOT and CAT Telecom into NT, it is unlikely to drive competition in the marketplace. Idem Est Research projects strong earnings growth despite the required 5G and fibre to the home investments by the telecommunications operators and a new wave of M&A, network sharing deals over the next two to three 3 years.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G is transforming the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS THAILAND TELECOMS REPORT:

3BB, Advanced Info Service (AIS), CAT Telecom, CS Loxinfo, DTAC, DTIF, Jasmine, JASIF, NBTC, NT (National Telecom), Symphony, Triple T, Telephone Organization of Thailand Corp (TOT), True Corporation, TrueMove, TrueOnline

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – Table of Contents

1       Key Statistics
1.1        Thailand Population
1.2        Thailand’s Economy
1.3        Thailand’s GDP

2       COVID-19 Impact

3       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2015–2027
3.1        Market Overview
3.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2015-2021
3.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2020-2027
3.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2015-2027
3.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2015-2021
3.4.2      Capex to Revenue Benchmark
3.4.3      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2020-2027

4       Telecommunications Operators Profile
4.1        Advanced Info Service Profile
4.1.1      AIS Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.2        DTAC Profile
4.2.1      DTAC Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.1        True Corporation Profile
4.1.1      True Corporation Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.2        National Telecom (NT) Profile
4.2.2      TOT Profile
4.2.3      CAT Telecom Corporation Profile
4.3        Jasmine Profile
4.3.1      Jasmine Corp Revenue and Profit Mix
4.4        Symphony Communications Profile

5       Mobile market
5.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2015-2027
5.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2015-2021
5.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2015-2021
5.1.3      Thailand Smartphone Share, 2022
5.1.4      Thailand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027
5.1.5      Thailand Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2020-2027
5.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2015-2027
5.2.1      Historical Thailand Mobile Service Revenue, 2015-2021
5.2.2      Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2020–2027
5.2.3      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2015-2021
5.3        Spectrum Holdings
5.3.1      Existing Spectrum Holdings
5.3.2      5G Launch and 5G Auctions Results
5.3.3      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
5.3.1      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
5.4        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
5.5        Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
5.6        Internet of Things (IoT)

6       Broadband Market
6.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2015-2021
6.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027

7       Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1        Fixed Digital Infrastructure
7.1.1      Government Plans
7.1.2      Submarine Cables

8       Thailand Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
8.1        Thailand Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2021
8.1.1      Thailand Telecom Towers Market Overview
8.1.2      Thailand Telecom Towers Background
8.2        Thailand Telecom Towers Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
8.3        Thailand Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
8.3.1      Thailand Telecom Towers Forecast, 2020-2027
8.4        Telco Digital Infrastructure Comparative

9       Thematics / Opportunities
9.1        Consolidation Opportunities
9.2        Diversification Opportunities
9.2.1      e-Commerce
9.2.2      Digital Payments
9.3        New Telecoms Operating Model
9.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
9.4        5G Developments
9.4.1      5G Overview
9.4.2      5G – Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
9.4.3      5G OpenRAN
9.4.4      Beyond 5G and Towards 6G

10     Telco M&A Transaction Database

11     Methodology

12     Copyright Notice

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Thailand
Figure 2 –Revenue Profile Historical Mix (MYR m), 2015 – 2021
Figure 3 –EBITDA Profile Historical Mix (THB m), 2015 – 2021
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2021
Figure 5 – Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2021
Figure 6 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2021
Figure 7 – Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (THB bn), 2020-2027
Figure 8 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2015-2021
Figure 9 – Telecommunications Capital Expenditure Spend, 2000-2027
Figure 10 – AIS Service Revenue Mix, 2015-2021
Figure 11 – AIS Historical Revenue Mix, 2015 – 2021 (THB m)
Figure 12 – DTAC Service Revenue Mix, 2015-2021
Figure 13 – DTAC Historical Revenue Mix, 2015 – 2021
Figure 14 – True Corp Service Revenue Mix, 2015-2021
Figure 15 – True Corp Historical Revenue Mix, 2015 – 2021
Figure 16 – TOT Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2020
Figure 17 – TOT Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2020
Figure 18 – CAT Telecom Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
Figure 19 – CAT Telecom Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2019
Figure 20 – Jasmine Revenue and EBITDA Margin (THB m), 2015-2021
Figure 21 – Symphony Revenue and EBITDA Margin (THB m), 2015-2021
Figure 22 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2015-2021
Figure 23 – Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2015-2021
Figure 24 – Mobile Prepaid Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2015-2021
Figure 25 – Mobile Postpaid Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2015-2021
Figure 26 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2015-2027
Figure 27 – Thailand Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 28 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 29 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU (THB), 2015-2027
Figure 30 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Emerging Asia-Pacific Countries, 2021
Figure 31 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2021
Figure 32 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2021
Figure 33 – Spectrum available for IoT in Thailand
Figure 34 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2015-2021
Figure 35 – Thailand Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2015-2021
Figure 36 – Thailand Broadband Services by Technology
Figure 37 – Thailand Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 38 – Thailand Telecom Towers Market Share, 2021
Figure 39 – Thailand Telecom Towers Forecast, 2020-2027
Figure 40 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 41 – 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 42 – Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 43 – 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 44 – Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 45 – Telecom Infra Project – OpenRAN Vision

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – Thailand – Key Statistics
Table 2 –Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2015-2021
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2020-2027
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2015-2021
Table 5 – Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2020-2027
Table 6 – Historical AIS Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2015-2021
Table 7 – Historical DTAC Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2015-2021
Table 8 – Historical True Corporation Revenue and Profit Mix, 2015-2021
Table 9 – Historical Proforma NT Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2015-2021
Table 10 – Historical TOT Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2020
Table 11 – Historical CAT Telecom Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2014-2019
Table 12 – Historical Jasmine Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2015-2021
Table 13 – Historical Symphony Revenue, 2015-2021
Table 14 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2015-2021
Table 15 – Thailand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027
Table 16 – Thailand Mobile Subscribers by Generation (3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2020-2027
Table 17 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2015-21
Table 18 – Historical Mobile Market Blended Mobile ARPU, 2015-2021
Table 19 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 20 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2015-2021
Table 21 – Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2015-2021
Table 22 – Thailand Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2020-2027
Table 23 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Thailand
Table 24 – Thailand Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2021
Table 25 – Thailand Tenant Indicative Tower Leasing Monthly Fees
Table 26 – Thailand Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
Table 27 – Thailand Telecom Towers, Revenue, Mobile Penetration & ARPU Forecast, 2020-2027
Table 28 – AIS, DTAC, CAT, TOT, True Corp, Symphony and Jasmine Telco Digital Infrastructure Landscape
Table 29 – Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 30 – Telco Transaction Database, 2001-2022

Other Idem Est Research Telecoms Country Reports

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Telecoms Country Report

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