Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – 2020-2025

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This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Thailland telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telecoms Infrastructure Review
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

About this report:
Pages: 69
Author: Landry Fevre
Publication Date: March 2020

Description

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE THAILAND TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insights on emerging trends supporting, enhancing or disrupting your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

The Thailand Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025 includes a comprehensive review of the Thai market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance
Idem Est Research expects the Thailand telecommunications industry to grow strongly thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, despite the political uncertainties, amid an uncertain economic outlook due to the Covid-19 pandemic. With already strong mobile phone penetration and robust fixed broadband take-up among households, future growth is likely to remain solid despite subdued growth in the young working population and an ageing population over the long term.

Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-25 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2015, sliding down every year since then.

Following the telecoms market expansion over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts sustained revenue growth to 2025, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, fuelled by data monetisation as long as data pricing stays rational amid the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue.

Mobile revenue is growing faster than mobile subscription numbers leading to ARPU growth as the market transitions from 2G & 3G to 4G mobile data services.

Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow through to 2025 after a marked slow down in 2016 due to legacy 2G voice & SMS revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth.

Capex Investments
The Capex to GDP ratio peaked in 2016 and has been sliding since, to its lowest in 2019. Capex investments will increase again through to 2025, as mobile operators invest in 5G, bolster their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand, maintaining a strong Capex to Sales Ratio.

Operator Profiles
AIS and True Corp gained revenue share in the 2014-2019 period at the expense of DTAC which just completed a strategic turnaround, TOT and CAT Telecom increased revenue from spectrum concessions but struggle to compete for fixed or mobile customers.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue
As the rate of growth of net additions in mobile subscriptions slows, telecommunications providers are channelling their efforts into reducing their cost base and raising ARPU through new value-added services using mobile data and bundling fixed and mobile services. The proportion of prepaid subscriptions shrank between 2014 and 2019 while the postpaid segment is  growing in popularity and reducing the number of people holding multiples SIMs.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Thailand has a competitive pricing compared to other countries while the average monthly download is among the highest in the region.

Broadband Subscribers – FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless
The fixed broadband market is experiencing strong growth mostly driven by three players, AIS, Jasmine and TrueOnline all investing in full-fibre networks. Jasmine actively migrated its DSL subscribers to its fibre network while TrueOnline and AIS are growing their subscriber base by capturing a large of broadband subscriber net-adds.

AIS, TrueOnline and Jasmine invested heavily in full-fibre networks opening opportunities for bundling IPTV and e-Commerce services leading the fastest broadband migration to full-fibre networks in the Asia-Pacific region.

Households growth and new FTTH investments by AIS, TrueOnline and Jasmine and others will drive up the fixed-broadband household penetration.

ThematicsTelecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

However, in the medium term, the telco sector is likely to experience some corporate activity with the government merging TOT and CAT Telecom, Jasmine, losing its founder/CEO for insider trading and Telenor expanding its presence in the region. Idem Est Research projects strong earnings growth despite the required 5G and fibre to the home investments by the telecommunications operators and a new wave of M&A, network sharing deals over the next two to three 3 years.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS THAILAND TELECOMS REPORT:

3BB, Advanced Info Service (AIS), CAT Telecom, CS Loxinfo, DTAC, DTIF, Jasmine, JASIF, NBTC, Symphony, Triple T, Telephone Organization of Thailand Corp (TOT), True Corporation

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – Table of Contents

1       Key Statistics
1.1        Thailand Population
1.2        Thailand Households
1.3        Thailand’s GDP

2       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014–2025
2.1        Market Overview
2.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2019
2.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018-2025
2.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
2.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
2.4.2      Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
2.4.3      Capex to GDP Benchmark
2.4.4      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2018-2025

3       Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1        Advanced Info Service Profile
3.1.1      AIS Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.2        DTAC Profile
3.2.1      DTAC Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.1        True Corporation Profile
3.1.1      True Corporation Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.2        TOT Profile
3.2.1      TOT Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3        CAT Telecom Corporation Profile
3.3.1      CAT Telecom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.4        Jasmine Profile
3.4.1      Jasmine Corp Revenue and Profit Mix
3.5        Symphony Communications Profile

4       Mobile market
4.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
4.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
4.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019
4.1.3      Thailand Smartphone Share, 2019
4.1.4      Thailand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2025
4.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
4.2.1      Historical Thailand Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
4.2.2      Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018–2025
4.2.3      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019
4.3        Spectrum Holdings
4.3.1      Existing Spectrum Holdings
4.3.2      5G Trials and 5G Auctions Results
4.3.3      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.3.1      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.4        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.5        Mobile Speed Tests
4.5.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.6        Internet of Things (IoT)

5       Broadband Market
5.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
5.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025

6       Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
6.1        Fixed Infrastructure
6.1.1      Government Plans
6.1.2      Submarine Cables
6.2        Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
6.2.1      Getting Ready for 5G
6.3        Telco Infrastructure Comparative

7       Thematics / Opportunities
7.1        Going for Scale
7.2        Going for Scope
7.2.1      e-Commerce
7.2.2      Digital Payments
7.3        New Telecoms Operating Model
7.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
7.4        5G versus Fixed
7.4.1      5G Overview
7.4.2      5G – Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
7.4.3      Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting Long Term

8       Telco M&A Transaction Database

9       Methodology

10     Copyright Notice

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Thailand
Figure 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019
Figure 3 – Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2019
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2019
Figure 5 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2019
Figure 6 – Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2014-2019
Figure 7 – Telecommunications Capital Expenditure Spend, 2000-2025
Figure 8 – AIS Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
Figure 9 – AIS Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2019 (THB m)
Figure 10 – DTAC Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
Figure 11 – DTAC Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2019
Figure 12 – True Corp Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
Figure 13 – True Corp Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2019
Figure 14 – TOT Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
Figure 15 – TOT Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2019
Figure 16 – CAT Telecom Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
Figure 17 – CAT Telecom Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2019
Figure 18 – Jasmine Revenue and EBITDA Margin (THB m), 2014-2019
Figure 19 – Symphony Revenue and EBITDA Margin (THB m), 2014-2019
Figure 20 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
Figure 21 – Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2014-2019
Figure 22 – Mobile Prepaid Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2015-2019
Figure 23 – Mobile Postpaid Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2015-2019
Figure 24 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2014-2025
Figure 25 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
Figure 26 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU (THB), 2018-2025
Figure 27 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Emerging Asia-Pacific Countries, 2019
Figure 28 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2019
Figure 29 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2019
Figure 30 – Ookla Mobile Speedtest Speed and Ranking Comparison
Figure 31 – Spectrum available for IoT in Thailand
Figure 32 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
Figure 33 – Thailand Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2015-2019
Figure 34 – Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
Figure 35 – Estimated Tower Market Share, 2019
Figure 36 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 37 – 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 38 – Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 39 – 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 40 – Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 41 – Australia – Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – Thailand – Key Statistics
Table 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2014-2019
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019-2025
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
Table 5 – Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2018-2025
Table 6 – Historical AIS Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, FY14-FY19
Table 7 – Historical DTAC Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
Table 8 – Historical True Corporation Revenue and Profit Mix, 2014-2019
Table 9 – Historical TOT Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2019
Table 10 – Historical CAT Telecom Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2014-2019
Table 11 – Historical Jasmine Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2014-2019
Table 12 – Historical Symphony Revenue, 2014-2019
Table 13 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2019
Table 14 – Thailand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
Table 15 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
Table 16 – Historical Mobile Market Blended Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
Table 17 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 18 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2019
Table 19 – Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2014-2019
Table 20 – Thailand Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
Table 21 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Thailand
Table 22 – AIS, DTAC, True Corp/DTIF, Jasmine, Symphony, TOT, CAT Telecom Telco Infrastructure Landscape
Table 23 – Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 24 – Australia – Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019
Table 25 – Telco Transaction Database, 2001-2019

Other Idem Est Research Telecoms Country Reports

Australia, China, India, Indonesia, JapanNew ZealandPhilippines, Malaysia, South Korea, TaiwanThailand, Vietnam

Telecoms Country Report

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