Philippines Telecoms Industry Report – 2024-2031

Description

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE PHILIPPINES TELECOMS ANALYSIS INDUSTRY REPORT:

• Benefit from the latest market opportunities
• Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
• Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
• Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
• Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
• Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
• Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles.

The Philippines Telecommunications Industry Report, 2024-2031 includes an overview of the Philippines market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Philippines Telecoms Industry Analysis Report at a Glance
What to Know: The Philippines’s telecommunications industry has been dominated by the PLDT-Globe duopoly over the last two decades. Recent reforms and the launch of a third mobile operator will bring competition and innovation in the sector.

Why it Matters: Telecommunications infrastructure investments have more than tripled with the arrival of DITO Telecommunity amd Converge ICT to the scene.

Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2023-30 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow strongly and increase its household penetration over the same period.

Expanded coverage, greater affordability, service improvements, increased data usage and smartphone penetration are the main drivers of growth in the telecoms sector. The country continues to expand its fibre-optic network and 4G coverage, backed by strong investment in capital expenditure. Investment in the telecoms sector grew to its highest in 2021 with new mobile market entrant DITO Telecommunity launching that year.

Go Deeper: Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow strongly through to 2030 despite the SIM registration process in 2023 which lead to a loss of mobile subscribers in 2023.

Capex Investments
The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2018 but soared in 2019. Idem Est Research estimates that the ratio will settle back by 2024 peaking in 2021. Both PLDT and Globe are investing heavily in 4G and 5G with PLDT playing catch-up by investing in its network expansion while Globe refocus on its fixed broadband business after stagnating in 2021. Idem Est Research forecasts an above-average Capex to sales ratio until 2023 while DITO Telecommunity ramps up its mobile network investments.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue
Idem Est Research forecasts a decline of mobile subscribers in 2023 and strong in the fixed broadband segment. We expect that the number of mobile and broadband subscribers will continue to rise steadily to 2030 from 2024 onwards.

Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance becoming now the sole offering differentiator.

Idem Est Research benchmarked mobile data pricing across 8 countries in the Asia Pacific region and found that the Philippines is lagging behind in terms of data download but we expect the country to catch up as 4G coverage is accelerating and smartphone penetration is increasing especially in regional areas.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. The Philippines pricing is on par with Thailand when benchmarked against neighbouring countries.

Broadband Subscribers – FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless
The Philippines fixed broadband was very much a laggard compared to other ASEAN countries which have invested more heavily in Fibre-to-home infrastructure. PLDT’s FTTH penetration is much lower than in other countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia or Thailand. After initially focusing on fixed wireless access, Globe shifted its strategy back to FTTH, but remains behind PLDT and Converge ICT. Other efforts from Radius Telecom (part of Meralco) remain small in scope and so far targeting only wealthy gated communities areas of Metro Manila, other large cities or new developments. The biggest growth after PLDT was Converge ICT which is performing very well.

Thematics – Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / e-Commerce
The Philippines is a sleeper market for mobile infrastructure, this is largely due to the cosy monopoly enjoyed between Globe Telecom and Smart (PLDT) over the last two decades and also due to the massive red tape required for building a mobile tower. The announcement of the third telco player ignited the market for tower sharing together with the DICT pushing a policy to build over 50,000 new towers shared across the industry, attracting a new category of infrastructure investors that were not participating in the market until now. New tower-build accompanied by fiberisation of the latter will boost the country’s telecoms infrastructure and will most welcome in the market after two decades of under-investments in the Philippines market.

Mobile operators and specialised towercos are rushing to sign deals but we doubt Globe and Smart will share any existing assets in a hurry unless they are forced to by the regulator.

Most towercos are greenfield operations and are each planning to build about 1,000 to 5,000 towers over the next three years. A large number of new entrants with over 20 towercos signed an MoU with DICT to participate in the build of 50,00 new towers.

The Philippines has one of the lowest ratios of mobile towers per capita and highest numbers subscribers per base transceiver stations (BTS) in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) region.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

Most telecommunications operators are in heavy investments phase both in fixed and mobile segments, spending heavily upgrading their 4G network infrastructure. Idem Est Research expects a wave of towercos consolidation in the Philippines but not before 2024-2025, as margins get squeezed further before a new Capex cycle kicking off with 6G by 2030.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

The increase in smartphone penetration made possible by the availability of low-cost devices has triggered growth in e-commerce, tapping into the potential of the Philippines’s emerging middle class with relatively high disposable income.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT:

ABS-CBN, Unity Digital Infrastructure, ALT Global Solutions Inc., American Tower, Bayantel, Chelsea Logistics and Infrastructure Holdings Corp., Converge ICT, DITO Telecommunity, edotco, Edgepoint, Frontier Tower Associates, Globe Telecom, Infinivan LCS Holdings Inc., Lopez Group, Miescor, Mislatel, Now Corp, Phil Tower, PLDT, Radius Telecom, Royal Cable, Sky Cable, Sky Broadband, Udenna

Philippines Telecoms Industry Report – Table of Contents

1       Key Statistics
1.1        Philippines Population
1.2        Philippines’ Economy
1.3        Philippines’ GDP

2       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2017–2031
2.1        Market Overview
2.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2017-2023
2.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2023-2031
2.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2017-2031
2.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2017-2023
2.4.2      Capex to Revenue Benchmark
2.4.3      Capex to GDP Benchmark
2.4.4      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2023-2031

3       Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1        PLDT Profile
3.1.1      PLDT Revenue EBITDA and Capex Profile
3.2        Globe Telecom Profile
3.2.1      Globe Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Profile
3.3        Dito Telecommunity
3.3.1      DITO Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Spend Profile, 2019-2023
3.4        Converge ICT
3.5        Other Players Profile
3.5.1      ABS-CBN
3.5.2      Other Cable Operators

4       Mobile market
4.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2017-2031
4.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2017-2023
4.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2017-2023
4.1.3      Breaking the Duopoly
4.1.4      Philippines Smartphone Share, 2024
4.1.5      Philippines Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
4.1.6      Philippines Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2023-2031
4.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2017-2031
4.2.1      Historical Mobile Revenue, 2017-2023
4.2.2      Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2023–2031
4.2.3      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2017-2023
4.3        Mobile Number Portability on its Way
4.4        Spectrum Holdings
4.4.1      Existing Spectrum Holdings and 5G Launches
4.4.2      Upcoming 5G Auctions
4.4.3      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.4.1      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.5        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.6        Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.2      OpenSignal
4.7        Internet of Things (IoT)

5       Broadband Market
5.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2017-2023
5.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031

6       Satellite Internet Connectivity
6.1        Comparing LEO, MEO, and GEO Satellite Orbits
6.1.1      LEO and GEO Satellite Comparison
6.2        Satellite Broadband Providers Operators, 2023
6.3        5G NTN: The Next Generation of Satellite Connectivity
6.3.1      5G NTN Overview
6.3.2      The Rationale Behind 5G NTN
6.3.3      Technical Aspects of 5G NTN
6.3.4      Potential Applications for 5G NTN
6.3.5      Challenges in Implementation
6.3.6      5G NTN Satellite Providers
6.4        Satellite Internet Market Analysis, 2023-2031
6.4.1      Market Landscape of Satellite Broadband Subscribers, 2023
6.5        Philippines Satellite Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031

7       Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1        Fixed Digital Infrastructure
7.1.1      National Broadband Network Plans
7.1.2      Submarine Cables
7.1.3      FTTH – a long way to go

8       Philippines Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
8.1        Philippines Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2023
8.1.1      Philippines Telecom Tower Market Overview
8.1.2      Philippines Telecom Towers Background
8.2        Philippines Telecom Towers Market Forecast
8.2.1      Philippines Telecom Towers Forecast, 2023-2031
8.2.2      Regulatory Considerations

9       Thematics / Opportunities
9.1        Consolidation Opportunities
9.2        Diversification Opportunities
9.3        New Telecoms Operating Model
9.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
9.4        6G Developments

10     Telco Transaction Database

11     Methodology

12     Copyright Notice

Philippines Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in the Philippines
Figure 2 –Revenue Profile Historical Mix (PHP m), 2017 – 2023
Figure 3 –EBITDA Profile Historical Mix (PHP m), 2017 – 2023
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2023
Figure 5 – Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2023
Figure 6 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2023
Figure 7 – Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (PHP bn), 2023-2031
Figure 8 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2017-2023
Figure 9 – Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2017-2023
Figure 10 – Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2031
Figure 11 – PLDT Service Revenue Mix, 2017-2023
Figure 12 – PLDT Historical Revenue Mix, 2017 – 2023 (PHP m)
Figure 13 – Globe Revenue Mix, 2017-2023
Figure 14 – Globe Historical Revenue Mix (PHP m), 2017 – 2023
Figure 15 – DITO Expected Capex Spend Distribution, 2019-2023
Figure 16 – Converge ICT Revenue Mix, 2017-2023
Figure 17 – Converge ICT Historical Revenue Mix (PHP m), 2017 – 2023
Figure 18 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 19 – Philippines Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 20 – Mobile Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 21 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 22 – Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 23 – Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 24 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2017-2023
Figure 25 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2024
Figure 26 – Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2023
Figure 27 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2023
Figure 28 – Asia Pacific Data Pricing Benchmark, 2024
Figure 29 – Spectrum available for IoT in the Philippines
Figure 30 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 31 – Philippines Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2017-2023
Figure 32 – Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 33 – Satellite Deployments Type
Figure 34 –Starlink and OneWeb Satellite Launches per Month (Data until Jan-24)
Figure 35 –Philippines Satellite Broadband Market Share, 2023
Figure 36 – Philippines Satellite Broadband Subscribers (k) Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 37 – Philippines Tower Market Share, 2023
Figure 38 – Philippines Telecom Towers Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 39 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges

Philippines Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – Philippines – Key Statistics
Table 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2017-2023
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2023-2031
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2017-2023
Table 5 – Historical PLDT Service Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2017-2023
Table 6 – Globe Service Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2017-2023
Table 7 – DITO Telecommunity Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Investment Profile, 2019-2023
Table 8 – Initial DITO Telecommunity Capex Investment Plan, 2019-2025
Table 9 – Converge ICT Service Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Mix, 2017-2023
Table 10 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2017-2023
Table 11 – Philippines Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 12 – Philippines Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 13 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2017-2023
Table 14 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 15 – Historical Mobile ARPU, 2017-2023
Table 16 – Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
Table 17 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (Mhz)
Table 18 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2017-2023
Table 19 – Historical Broadband ARPU, 2017-2023
Table 20 – Philippines Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 21 – Satellite Orbit Altitudes
Table 22 – LEO and GEO Satellite Comparison
Table 23 – Satellite Broadband Subscribers Operators, 2024
Table 24 – 5G NTN and Satellite Providers, 2023
Table 25 – Philippines Satellite Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 26 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in the Philippines
Table 27 – Philippines Telecom Tower Market Analysis, 2023
Table 28 – Philippines Tower Transaction Database, 2022-2023
Table 29 – Philippines Registered Independent Telecom Towercos, 2024
Table 30 – Philippines Tenant Indicative Tower Leasing Monthly Fees
Table 31 – Philippines Telecom Towers, Revenue, Mobile Subscribers, Penetration & ARPU Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 32 – Telco Transaction Database, 2001-2023

Other Idem Est Research Telecoms Country Reports

Australia, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam,
Asia Pacific Telecom Towers, Asia Pacific Satellite Internet, Starlink Company Profile

Telecoms Country Report