Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – 2024-2031

Description

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE VIETNAM TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

• Target Business Opportunities and Risks: Stay informed on the latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects, and investments in Vietnam’s telecoms sector.
• Protect Against Future Risks: Understand potential threats to your operations and investments and take steps to safeguard your company.
• Gain Insight on Emerging Trends: Identify trends that could support, enhance, or disrupt your business activities in the market.
• Assess Market Position: Get a comprehensive view of the competitive landscape to evaluate your market standing.
• Informed Strategic Planning: Use market forecasts as a critical input for budgeting and long-term business strategy.
• Evaluate Competitors and Partners: Review the activities, strategies, and market positions of your competitors, partners, and clients.

The Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report 2024-2031 provides an in-depth analysis of market dynamics, sizing, forecasts, and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance

Vietnam’s telecommunications industry is flourishing, offering substantial opportunities for both local and foreign investors. The positive economic outlook, coupled with expected GDP growth of 10% from 2023 to 2030, positions Vietnam as a key market. High mobile phone penetration and the increasing adoption of fixed broadband suggest continued growth, despite challenges posed by an aging population.

Key Developments:

• Mobile Growth: Mobile subscriptions are projected to grow by 1.7% from 2024 to 2031, while fixed broadband subscriptions are expected to rise by 2.8%.
• Revenue Expansion: Mobile revenue is increasing faster than subscription growth, driven by the transition from 2G/3G to 4G data services.
• Network Upgrades: Vietnam completed its 2G shutdown in October 2024, with 3G expected to follow by 2028.
• Market Recovery: After a slowdown in 2018-2019 due to declining 2G voice/SMS revenue, the market is expected to grow through 2031, supported by rising mobile data usage.
• Capex Trends: Investment in capital expenditure (Capex) remains stable, with 5G Capex spending still to come. Fixed broadband deployments, primarily FTTH, are largely complete.

Mobile Market:

• Shifting Focus: Since early 2020, 3G and 4G subscribers have overtaken 2G users. Operators are now concentrating on data-centric services rather than traditional voice and SMS.
• 5G Growth: By 2031, 5G subscribers are projected to represent 69% of all connections, while 4G will account for 34%. The 2G network shutdown is complete, and the 3G shutdown is anticipated by 2028.

Broadband Market:

• Rapid Growth: Fixed broadband is growing rapidly, driven by investments from VNPT, Viettel, and FPT into full-fibre networks. This expansion is facilitating the transition to higher-speed, reliable connections.
• Future Potential: With fibre-optic technology investments, household broadband penetration is expected to surge, providing new opportunities for services like IPTV and e-commerce.

Telecom Infrastructure and Investments:

• High-Value Assets: Infrastructure assets, including mobile towers, data centers, submarine cables, and fibre networks, are attracting significant valuations from infrastructure and government funds.
• Investor Insights: The report includes real-world examples and industry benchmarks on how investors assess telecommunications infrastructure investments.

Market Dynamics and Consolidation:

• Government Influence: While the government controls over 90% of the market through three key players, corporate activity remains limited. Smaller operators may consolidate as competition intensifies.
• Future Mergers: As the market matures, potential consolidation may occur among smaller operators, and the government could reduce its stakes in VNPT and Mobifone by up to 50%, opening the door to private investments.

5G and Future Transformations:

• 5G Impact: While 4G brought mobile internet to the masses, 5G promises to revolutionize connectivity, powering innovations such as virtual reality, augmented reality, and autonomous vehicles. However, the exact business models and timelines for these advancements remain uncertain.

This report is an essential tool for telecom professionals, investors, and decision-makers looking to navigate Vietnam’s dynamic telecommunications market over the next decade.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT:

CMC, FPT, Gmobile, Hanoi Telecom, Hutchison Asia Telecom, Mobifone, OCK, Saigon Post, Viettel, Vietnamobile, Vinaphone, VNPT

Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – Table of Contents

1       Key Statistics
1.1        Vietnam Population
1.2        Vietnam’s Economy
1.3        Vietnam’s GDP

2       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2017–2031
2.1        Market Overview
2.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2017-2023
2.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2023-2031
2.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2017-2031
2.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2017-2023
2.4.2      Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
2.4.3      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2000-2031

3       Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1        Viettel Profile
3.1.1      Viettel Revenue and Profit Mix
3.2        VNPT Profile
3.2.1      VNPT Revenue and Profit Mix
3.1        Mobifone Profile
3.1.1      Mobifone Revenue and Profit Mix
3.2        FPT Profile
3.2.1      FPT Revenue and Profit Mix
3.3        CMC Corporation Profile
3.3.1      CMC Corp Revenue and Profit Mix
3.4        Vietnamobile
3.4.1      Vietnamobile Revenue
3.5        Other Players Profile

4       Mobile Market
4.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2017-2031
4.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2017-2023
4.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2017-2023
4.1.3      Vietnam Smartphone Share, 2023
4.1.4      Vietnam Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
4.1.5      Vietnam Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2023-2031
4.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2017-2031
4.2.1      Historical Vietnam Mobile Service Revenue, 2017-2023
4.2.2      Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2023–2031
4.2.3      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2017-2023
4.3        Spectrum Holdings
4.3.1      Existing Spectrum Holdings
4.3.2      5G launches and Upcoming 5G Auctions
4.3.3      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.3.1      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.4        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.5        Mobile Speed Tests
4.5.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.6        Internet of Things (IoT)

5       Broadband Market
5.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2017-2023
5.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031

6       Satellite Internet Connectivity
6.1        Comparing LEO, MEO, and GEO Satellite Orbits
6.1.1      LEO and GEO Satellite Comparison
6.2        Satellite Broadband Providers Operators, 2023
6.3        5G NTN: The Next Generation of Satellite Connectivity
6.3.1      5G NTN Overview
6.3.2      The Rationale Behind 5G NTN
6.3.3      Technical Aspects of 5G NTN
6.3.4      Potential Applications for 5G NTN
6.3.5      Challenges in Implementation
6.3.6      5G NTN Satellite Providers
6.4        Satellite Internet Market Analysis, 2023-2031
6.4.1      Market Landscape of Satellite Broadband Subscribers, 2024
6.5        Vietnam Satellite Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031

7       Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1        Fixed Digital Infrastructure
7.2        Submarine Cables

8       Vietnam Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
8.1        Vietnam Mobile Digital Infrastructure
8.1.1      Vietnam Telecom Towers Market Overview
8.1.2      Vietnam Telecom Towers Background
8.2        Vietnam Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
8.2.1      Vietnam Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
8.3        Vietnam Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
8.3.1      Vietnam Telecom Towers Forecast, 2023-2031
8.4        OCK Profile
8.4.1      OCK Key Performance Indicators
8.5        Golden Tower Profile
8.5.1      Golden Tower Key Performance Indicators
8.6        Nisco Profile
8.6.1      Nisco Key Performance Indicators
8.7        Telco Digital Infrastructure Comparative

9       Thematics / Opportunities
9.1        Consolidation Opportunities
9.2        Diversification Opportunities
9.2.1      e-Commerce
9.2.2      Digital Payments
9.3        New Telecoms Operating Model
9.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
9.4        6G Developments

10     Telco M&A Transactions Database

11     Methodology

12     Copyright Notice

Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Vietnam
Figure 2 –Revenue Profile Historical Mix (VND bn), 2017 – 2023
Figure 3 – Telecommunications Market Revenue Pool, 2023
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Market Pre-Tax Profits Pool, 2023
Figure 5 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2023
Figure 6 – Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (VND bn), 2023-2031
Figure 7 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2017-2023
Figure 8 – Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2031
Figure 9 – VNPT Telecommunications Revenue and Profit (VND trn), 2017-2023
Figure 10 – Viettel Historical Revenue Mix, 2017 – 2023 (VND bn)
Figure 11 – VNPT Telecommunications Revenue and Profit (VND trn), 2017-2023
Figure 12 – VNPT Historical Revenue Mix (VND bn), 2017 – 2023
Figure 13 – Mobifone Revenue and Profit Margin (VND trn), 2017-2023
Figure 14 – FPT Revenue and Profit Margin (VND trn), 2017-2023
Figure 15 – CMC Revenue and Profit Margin (VND bn), 2017-2023
Figure 16 – Vietnamobile Revenue and Revenue Growth (VND bn), 2017-2023
Figure 17 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 18 – Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 19 – Mobile Prepaid & Postpaid Share Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 20 – Mobile Prepaid/Postpaid Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 21 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2017-2031
Figure 22 – Vietnam Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 23 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 24 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU (VND), 2017-2023
Figure 25 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2024
Figure 26 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2023
Figure 27 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2023
Figure 28 – Asia Pacific Data Pricing Benchmark, 2024
Figure 29 – Spectrum available for IoT in Vietnam
Figure 30 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 31 – Vietnam Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2017-2023
Figure 32 – Vietnam Broadband Services by Access Technology, 2017-2023
Figure 33 – Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2017-2031
Figure 34 – Satellite Deployments Type
Figure 35 –Starlink and OneWeb Satellite Launches per Month (Data until Jan-24)
Figure 36 – Vietnam Satellite Broadband Subscribers (k) Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 37 – Estimated Tower Market Share, 2023
Figure 38 – Vietnam Telecom Towers Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 39 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges

Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – Vietnam – Key Statistics
Table 2 – Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2023-2031
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2017-2023
Table 5 – Historical Viettel Revenue, Pre-Tax Profit & Capex, 2017-2023
Table 6 – Historical VNPT Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2017-2023
Table 7 – Historical Mobifone Revenue and Profit Mix, 2017-2023
Table 8 – Historical FPT Revenue, Pre-Tax Profit & Capex, 2017-2023
Table 9 – Historical CMC Corp Revenue, Pre-Tax-Profit, 2017-2023
Table 10 – Historical Vietnamobile Revenue, 2017-2023
Table 11 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2017-2023
Table 12 – Vietnam Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 13 – Vietnam Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 14 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2017-2023
Table 15 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 16 – Historical Mobile Market Blended Mobile ARPU, 2017-2023
Table 17 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (Mhz)
Table 18 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2017-2023
Table 19 – Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2017-2023
Table 20 – Vietnam Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 21 – Satellite Orbit Altitudes
Table 22 – LEO and GEO Satellite Comparison
Table 23 – Satellite Broadband Subscribers Operators, 2024
Table 24 – 5G NTN and Satellite Providers, 2024
Table 25 – Vietnam Satellite Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 26 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Vietnam
Table 27 – Vietnam Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2023
Table 28 – Vietnam Tenant Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 29 – Vietnam Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
Table 30 – Vietnam Telecom Towers, Mobile Subscribers, Penetration & ARPU Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 31 – OCK Key Performance Indicators, 2023
Table 32 – Golden Tower Key Performance Indicators, 2023
Table 33 – Nisco Key Performance Indicators, 2023
Table 34 – Viettel, VNPT, Mobifone, FPT, CMC Telco Digital Infrastructure Landscape
Table 35 – Telco Transaction Database, 2015-2024

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