Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – 2023-2030

Description

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE THAILAND TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

• Benefit from the latest market opportunities
• Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
• Gain insights on emerging trends supporting, enhancing or disrupting your activities in the market
• Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
• Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
• Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
• Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

The Thailand Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2027 includes a comprehensive review of the Thai market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance

Thailand Telecom Market Set for Steady Growth Amid Competitive Pressures

Idem Est Research provides an in-depth analysis of Thailand’s telecommunications market over the next decade. The research examines the overall market outlook, trends in mobile and fixed broadband services, infrastructure investments, and opportunities and challenges facing operators.

Moderate Overall Market Expansion Expected

The report forecasts the total Thailand telecom market to grow at an average annual rate of 1.5% from 2023-2030. Growth is expected to remain steady but modest in a maturing market facing competitive and political pressures.

Key drivers include ongoing mobile data monetization, 5G network launches, and increased fixed broadband adoption. But revenue growth is hampered by declining legacy services and market saturation.

Mobile Market Approaching Maturity

Thailand’s mobile market will continue expanding over the next decade but at a slower pace. The report projects mobile subscriptions to increase from 101 million in 2022 representing 0.9% compound annual growth.

The consumer shift to 4G/5G and smartphones will persist. But intensifying competition and market maturity will limit subscription and revenue growth. Postpaid plans are rising as a share of the subscriber base.

Large Opportunity in Fixed Broadband

Thailand’s fixed broadband market has growth potential, with household penetration at just 50% in 2022. Fibre network investments by operators are driving increases in high-speed subscriptions.

The report forecasts fixed broadband subscribers to rise at 3.8% annually through 2030. Expanding fibre coupled with demand for faster speeds will underpin growth.

Towers Market Consolidating as 5G Rolls Out

Independent tower firms own 56% of Thailand’s mobile towers as of 2022. Tower revenue is projected to grow through 2030, but revenue per tower may decline as 5G drives a shift toward smaller towers and telco mergers lead to rationalisation. The top players are consolidating – for example, True merging with DTAC in 2022.

Competitive Intensity Creates Challenges

The report notes that competitive and political pressures limit Thailand’s growth potential relative to other Asian telecom markets. The crowded mobile market and shift from legacy services also hamper revenue expansion.

But steady development is still expected over the next decade, benefiting from ongoing investments in new networks to enable emerging technologies like 5G and fibre broadband.

Thematics – Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure
Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

However, in the medium term, the telco sector is likely to digest the two mega mergers of DTAC and True Corp as well as AIs acquiring Jamsine. Despite, the government merging TOT and CAT Telecom into NT, it is unlikely to drive competition in the marketplace. Idem Est Research projects strong earnings growth despite the required 5G and fibre to the home investments by the telecommunications operators and a new wave of M&A, network sharing deals over the next two to three 3 years.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G is transforming the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS THAILAND TELECOMS REPORT:

3BB, Advanced Info Service (AIS), CAT Telecom, CS Loxinfo, DTAC, DTIF, Jasmine, JASIF, NBTC, NT (National Telecom), Symphony, Triple T, Telephone Organization of Thailand Corp (TOT), True Corporation, TrueMove, TrueOnline

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – Table of Contents

1       Key Statistics
1.1        Thailand Population
1.2        Thailand’s Economy
1.3        Thailand’s GDP

2       Overall Telecommunications Market, 2016–2030
2.1        Market Overview
2.2        Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2016-2022
2.3        Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2022-2030
2.4        Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2016-2030
2.4.1      Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
2.4.2      Capex to Revenue Benchmark
2.4.3      Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2022-2030

3       Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1        Advanced Info Service Profile
3.1.1      AIS Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.1        True Corporation Profile
3.1.1      True Corporation Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.1.2      DTAC Profile (Historical)
3.1.3      DTAC Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.2        National Telecom (NT) Profile
3.2.2      TOT Profile (Historical)
3.2.3      CAT Telecom Corporation Profile (Historical)
3.3        Jasmine Profile
3.3.1      Jasmine Corp Revenue and Profit Mix
3.4        Symphony Communications Profile

4       Mobile market
4.1        Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.1.1      Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
4.1.2      Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2016-2023
4.1.3      Thailand Smartphone Share, 2023
4.1.4      Thailand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
4.1.5      Thailand Mobile Subscribers by Generation (2G, 3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
4.2        Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2016-2030
4.2.1      Historical Thailand Mobile Service Revenue, 2016-2022
4.2.2      Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2022–2030
4.2.3      Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2016-2022
4.3        Spectrum Holdings
4.3.1      Existing Spectrum Holdings
4.3.2      5G Launch and 5G Auctions Results
4.3.3      Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.3.1      Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.4        Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.5        Mobile Speed Tests
4.5.1      Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.6        Internet of Things (IoT)

5       Broadband Market
5.1        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2016-2022
5.2        Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030

6       Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
6.1        Fixed Digital Infrastructure
6.1.1      Government Plans
6.1.2      Submarine Cables

7       Thailand Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
7.1        Thailand Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2023
7.1.1      Thailand Telecom Towers Market Overview
7.1.2      Thailand Telecom Towers Background
7.2        Thailand Telecom Towers Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
7.3        Thailand Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
7.3.1      Thailand Telecom Towers Forecast, 2022-2030
7.4        Telco Digital Infrastructure Comparative

8       Thematics / Opportunities
8.1        Consolidation Opportunities
8.2        Diversification Opportunities
8.2.1      e-Commerce
8.2.2      Digital Payments
8.3        New Telecoms Operating Model
8.3.1      The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
8.4        5G Developments
8.4.1      5G Overview
8.4.2      5G – Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
8.4.3      5G OpenRAN
8.4.4      Beyond 5G and Towards 6G

9       Telco M&A Transaction Database

10     Methodology

11     Copyright Notice

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – List of Figures

Figure 1 – Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Thailand
Figure 2 –Revenue Profile Historical Mix (THB m), 2016 – 2022
Figure 3 –EBITDA Profile Historical Mix (THB m), 2016 – 2022
Figure 4 – Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022
Figure 5 – Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2022
Figure 6 – Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2022
Figure 7 – Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (THB bn), 2022-2030
Figure 8 – Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2016-2022
Figure 9 – Telecommunications Capital Expenditure Spend, 2000-2030
Figure 10 – AIS Service Revenue Mix, 2016-2022
Figure 11 – AIS Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 – 2022 (THB m)
Figure 12 – True Corp Service Revenue Mix, 2016-2022
Figure 13 – True Corp Historical Revenue Mix, 2016 – 2022
Figure 14 – DTAC Service Revenue Mix, 2015-2021
Figure 15 – DTAC Historical Revenue Mix, 2015 – 2021
Figure 16 – TOT Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2020
Figure 17 – TOT Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2020
Figure 18 – CAT Telecom Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
Figure 19 – CAT Telecom Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 – 2019
Figure 20 – Jasmine Revenue and EBITDA Margin (THB m), 2016-2022
Figure 21 – Symphony Revenue and EBITDA Margin (THB m), 2016-2022
Figure 22 – Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 23 – Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 24 – Mobile Prepaid Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 25 – Mobile Postpaid Net Adds (000’s) Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 26 – Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2016-2030
Figure 27 – Thailand Mobile Subscribers by Generation (3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 28 – Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 29 – Mobile Subscribers ARPU (THB), 2016-2030
Figure 30 – Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Emerging Asia-Pacific Countries, 2022
Figure 31 –Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2022
Figure 32 – Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2022
Figure 33 – Asia Pacific Data Pricing Benchmark, 2022
Figure 34 – Spectrum available for IoT in Thailand
Figure 35 – Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2016-2023
Figure 36 – Thailand Net-Adds (000’s) by Operators, 2016-2023
Figure 37 – Thailand Broadband Services by Technology, 2016-2023
Figure 38 – Thailand Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 39 – Thailand Telecom Towers Market Share, 2023
Figure 40 – Thailand Telecom Towers Forecast, 2022-2030
Figure 41 – Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
Figure 42 – 5G Network Slices Structure
Figure 43 – Effect of Frequency on Range
Figure 44 – 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
Figure 45 – Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
Figure 46 – Telecom Infra Project – OpenRAN Vision

Thailand Telecoms Industry Report – List of Tables

Table 1 – Thailand – Key Statistics
Table 2 –Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2016-2022
Table 3 – Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2022-2030
Table 4 – Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2016-2022
Table 5 – Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 6 – Historical AIS Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2016-2022
Table 7 – Historical True Corporation Revenue and Profit Mix, 2016-2023
Table 8 – Historical DTAC Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2015-2021
Table 9 – Historical Proforma NT Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2016-2022
Table 10 – Historical TOT Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2020
Table 11 – Historical CAT Telecom Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2014-2019
Table 12 – Historical Jasmine Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2016-2022
Table 13 – Historical Symphony Revenue, 2016-2022
Table 14 – Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2016-2023
Table 15 – Thailand Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 16 – Thailand Mobile Subscribers by Generation (3G, 4G & 5G) Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 17 – Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2016-22
Table 18 – Historical Mobile Market Blended Mobile ARPU, 2016-2023
Table 19 – Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 20 – Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2016-2023
Table 21 – Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2016-2022
Table 22 – Thailand Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 23 – International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Thailand
Table 24 – Thailand Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2023
Table 25 – Thailand Tenant Indicative Tower Leasing Monthly Fees
Table 26 – Thailand Tower Market Competitive Landscape Comparison
Table 27 – Thailand Telecom Towers, Revenue, Mobile Penetration & ARPU Forecast, 2022-2030
Table 28 – AIS, DTAC, CAT, TOT, True Corp, Symphony and Jasmine Telco Digital Infrastructure Landscape
Table 29 – Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
Table 30 – Telco Transaction Database, 2001-2023

Other Idem Est Research Telecoms Country Reports

Australia, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam,
Asia Pacific Telecom Towers, Asia Pacific Satellite Internet

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